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Subtropical Storm FAY Forecast Advisory Number 3
2014-10-11 01:30:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2330 UTC FRI OCT 10 2014 000 WTNT22 KNHC 102330 TCMAT2 SUBTROPICAL STORM FAY SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014 2330 UTC FRI OCT 10 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 64.2W AT 10/2330Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. 34 KT.......100NE 0SE 30SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 64.2W AT 10/2330Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 64.0W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 26.0N 64.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 30SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 28.5N 65.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. 34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 31.7N 63.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 33.7N 60.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.2N 64.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Subtropical Storm FAY Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2014-10-11 01:30:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2330 UTC FRI OCT 10 2014 000 FONT12 KNHC 102330 PWSAT2 SUBTROPICAL STORM FAY SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014 2330 UTC FRI OCT 10 2014 AT 2330Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X 9( 9) 45(54) 3(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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