je.st

Home › fay

Tag: fay

Subtropical Storm FAY Forecast Discussion Number 5

2014-10-11 10:35:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST SAT OCT 11 2014 000 WTNT42 KNHC 110835 TCDAT2 SUBTROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014 500 AM AST SAT OCT 11 2014 It appears that Fay is gradually acquiring tropical characteristics as the convection becomes more symmetric and getting closer to the center, but it is not quite tropical yet. There is a small window of opportunity for Fay to transition to a tropical cyclone during the next 6 to 12 hours before the shear increases further. There is no data to change the winds at this time, and the initial intensity is kept at 50 kt. Another reconnaissance flight is scheduled for later this morning. Only a slight strengthening is anticipated before the system becomes absorbed by a strong cold front in about 48 hours as indicated by most of the global models. The initial motion estimate is 355/10. Fay continues to move around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge, and is expected to continue northward for 6 to 12 more hours. It should then recurve into the mid-latitude westerlies with an increase in forward speed. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one, and follows very closely the multi-model consensus TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 26.7N 64.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 29.1N 64.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 32.2N 63.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 35.0N 59.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila

Tags: number discussion storm forecast

Summary for Subtropical Storm FAY (AT2/AL072014)

2014-10-11 10:34:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...FAY EXPECTED TO PASS EAST OF BERMUDA EARLY SUNDAY... ...WINDS COULD BEGIN TO INCREASE IN BERMUDA EARLIER... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Oct 11 the center of FAY was located near 26.7, -64.7 with movement N at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Tags: summary storm subtropical fay

Subtropical Storm FAY Public Advisory Number 5

2014-10-11 10:34:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST SAT OCT 11 2014 000 WTNT32 KNHC 110834 TCPAT2 BULLETIN SUBTROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014 500 AM AST SAT OCT 11 2014 ...FAY EXPECTED TO PASS EAST OF BERMUDA EARLY SUNDAY... ...WINDS COULD BEGIN TO INCREASE IN BERMUDA EARLIER... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.7N 64.7W ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.7 WEST. THE STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY IS EXPECTED TO PASS EAST OF BERMUDA LATER TODAY OR EARLY SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...AND FAY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA LATER TODAY. RAINFALL...FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA. SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY FAY WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-FACING SHORES OF BERMUDA TODAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA

Tags: number public storm advisory

Subtropical Storm FAY Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

2014-10-11 10:34:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 11 2014 000 FONT12 KNHC 110834 PWSAT2 SUBTROPICAL STORM FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014 0900 UTC SAT OCT 11 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 7 58(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) BERMUDA 50 X 22(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) BERMUDA 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

Tags: number speed wind storm