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Tropical Storm FAY Public Advisory Number 6A
2014-10-11 19:39:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST SAT OCT 11 2014 000 WTNT32 KNHC 111739 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014 200 PM AST SAT OCT 11 2014 ...FAY MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.6N 65.5W ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.5 WEST. FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD BRING THE CORE OF STRONGEST WINDS OVER BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FAY IS EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM ...FROM THE CENTER. DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...NOAA BUOY 41049...LOCATED ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF FAY...REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 40 MPH...65 KM/H AND A GUST TO 45 MPH...72 KM/H. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY A BUOY NEAR THE CENTER OF FAY WAS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA BY THIS EVENING. RAINFALL...FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA. SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY FAY WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-FACING SHORES OF BERMUDA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm FAY Graphics
2014-10-11 17:08:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 11 Oct 2014 14:41:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 11 Oct 2014 15:04:44 GMT
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Tropical Storm FAY Forecast Discussion Number 6
2014-10-11 16:54:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST SAT OCT 11 2014 000 WTNT42 KNHC 111454 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014 1100 AM AST SAT OCT 11 2014 Tropical Storm Fay made the transition to a tropical cyclone around 0600 UTC based on AMSU and other satellite data that arrived after the previous advisory was released. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft confirmed this transition had occurred, when it made a pass through the northwestern and northern quadrants indicating that the radius of maximum wind had decreased to about 40 n mi. A blend of satellite intensity estimates, flight-level surface wind conversions, and reliable SFMR surface winds support increasing the intensity to 60 kt. The latest center dropsonde data suggests a central pressure of about 991 mb. The initial motion estimate is 355/14. Other than the center redeveloping a little farther west and closer to the deep convection, the overall track forecast and reasoning remains unchanged form the previous advisory. Fay is expected to continue to move northward and then northeastward around the western periphery of a strong mid-level ridge for the next 24 hours or so, and then recurve into the mid-latitude westerlies with an increase in forward speed by 36 hours. The official track forecast closely follows the multi-model consensus TVCN. The strength and direction of the current vertical wind shear is forecast to remain unchanged for the next 24 hours, so no change in intensity indicated during that time. By 36 hours, the shear is forecast to increase to more than 40 kt from the southwest, which should induce a weakening trend until the cyclone is absorbed by a strong cold front in about 48 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 27.9N 65.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 30.1N 65.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 33.0N 62.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 35.3N 58.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 13/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm FAY Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2014-10-11 16:44:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 11 2014 000 FONT12 KNHC 111444 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014 1500 UTC SAT OCT 11 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 6 81(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) BERMUDA 50 X 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) BERMUDA 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Summary for Tropical Storm FAY (AT2/AL072014)
2014-10-11 16:44:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS FAY A LITTLE STRONGER... ...OUTER RAIN BANDS BEGINNING TO AFFECT BERMUDA... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Oct 11 the center of FAY was located near 27.9, -65.3 with movement N at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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