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Tropical Storm FAY Public Advisory Number 9A
2014-10-12 13:43:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST SUN OCT 12 2014 000 WTNT32 KNHC 121143 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014 800 AM AST SUN OCT 12 2014 ...FAY LASHES BERMUDA WITH GUSTS TO 82 MPH... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.4N 63.9W ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM NNE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.9 WEST. FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH...31 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BY TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FAY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM FROM THE CENTER. BERMUDA REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 61 MPH...98 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST TO 82 MPH...132 KM/H...A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO AS THE CENTER OF FAY WAS MOVING BY THE ISLAND. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM BERMUDA IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER BERMUDA THROUGH THIS MORNING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAINFALL...FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA. SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY FAY WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-FACING SHORES OF BERMUDA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm FAY Graphics
2014-10-12 10:57:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 12 Oct 2014 08:57:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 12 Oct 2014 08:54:44 GMT
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Tropical Storm FAY Forecast Discussion Number 9
2014-10-12 10:55:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST SUN OCT 12 2014 000 WTNT42 KNHC 120855 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014 500 AM AST SUN OCT 12 2014 The area of cold cloud tops associated with Fay has expanded overnight, but radar imagery from Bermuda indicate that the overall convective structure of the cyclone has not changed much. Surface observations and the radar data show that the center of Fay has passed over the island within the past hour. Subsequently, a minimum pressure of 986 mb was reported at Bermuda airport observing station. The initial wind speed remains 60 kt and is based on the earlier aircraft and ASCAT data, and the 06z Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB. Little change in strength is expected during the next 12 to 24 hours. After that time, Fay is expected to merge with a frontal zone and become extratropical. The global models now keep the post-tropical cyclone a distinct feature along the frontal zone a little longer, so the new NHC forecast delays dissipation until around 48 hours. Fay has not turned quite as sharp as predicted. The initial motion estimate is north-northeastward or 015/17 kt. Fay should turn northeastward later this morning, and then accelerate north-northeastward in the mid-latitude westerly flow over the Atlantic tonight through Monday. The updated NHC track is a little north of the previous track and near the middle of the tightly clustered guidance models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 32.4N 64.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 34.2N 61.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 35.8N 55.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 13/1800Z 36.0N 49.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm FAY Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2014-10-12 10:55:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 12 2014 000 FONT12 KNHC 120855 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014 0900 UTC SUN OCT 12 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BERMUDA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Tropical Storm FAY (AT2/AL072014)
2014-10-12 10:55:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CENTER OF FAY PASSES OVER BERMUDA... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Oct 12 the center of FAY was located near 32.4, -64.6 with movement NNE at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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