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Summary for Subtropical Storm FAY (AT2/AL072014)
2014-10-11 07:33:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FAY EXPECTED TO PASS EAST OF BERMUDA SATURDAY NIGHT... As of 2:00 AM AST Sat Oct 11 the center of FAY was located near 26.4, -64.5 with movement NNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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at2al072014
Subtropical Storm FAY Public Advisory Number 4A
2014-10-11 07:33:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST SAT OCT 11 2014 000 WTNT32 KNHC 110533 TCPAT2 BULLETIN SUBTROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014 200 AM AST SAT OCT 11 2014 ...FAY EXPECTED TO PASS EAST OF BERMUDA BY LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY. SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.4N 64.5W ABOUT 400 MI...650 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.5 WEST. FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY IS EXPECTED TO PASS EAST OF BERMUDA SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AFTER THAT TIME. WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA LATER TODAY. RAINFALL...FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA. SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY FAY WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-FACING SHORES OF BERMUDA TODAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Subtropical Storm FAY Graphics
2014-10-11 04:32:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 11 Oct 2014 02:32:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 11 Oct 2014 02:31:46 GMT
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fay
Summary for Subtropical Storm FAY (AT2/AL072014)
2014-10-11 04:31:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FAY EXPECTED TO PASS EAST OF BERMUDA SATURDAY NIGHT... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Oct 10 the center of FAY was located near 25.9, -64.5 with movement NNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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at2al072014
Subtropical Storm FAY Forecast Discussion Number 4
2014-10-11 04:31:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST FRI OCT 10 2014 000 WTNT42 KNHC 110231 TCDAT2 SUBTROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014 1100 PM AST FRI OCT 10 2014 The cloud pattern of Fay features an area of deep convection displaced northwest of the low-level center by about 30 kt of southerly shear and a fractured convective band well east of the center. The initial intensity remains 50 kt based on the earlier aircraft data. Overall, the cloud pattern looks more tropical than it did a few hours ago, and Fay will likely transition to a tropical cyclone in the next 6 to 12 hours. Given that the shear is expected to continue, only limited intensification is shown in the next 12 to 24 hours, followed by slow weakening until the cyclone is absorbed after 48 hours. The new NHC intensity forecast is close to the latest IVCN multi-model consensus. The initial motion estimate is 345/11, as Fay continues to move around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge. There is no change to the track forecast philosophy, with Fay expected to turn northward in the next 12 to 24 hours and then recurve into the mid-latitude westerlies. The new NHC track forecast is a little to the right of the previous one through 24 hours based on the initial position and motion, and is largely an update of the previous forecast after that time. The NHC forecast is close to the latest dynamical model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 25.9N 64.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 27.7N 64.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 30.8N 64.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 33.9N 61.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 13/0000Z 36.6N 56.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 14/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT $$ Forecaster Brennan
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