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Tropical Storm FAY Public Advisory Number 10
2014-10-12 16:34:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST SUN OCT 12 2014 000 WTNT32 KNHC 121434 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014 1100 AM AST SUN OCT 12 2014 ...FAY MOVING AWAY FROM BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.0N 62.8W ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM NE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... NONE FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.8 WEST. FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY TODAY...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT. FAY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE STILL AFFECTING BERMUDA... BUT THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAINFALL...RAINS OVER BERMUDA WILL DIMINISH TODAY. SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY FAY COULD STILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-FACING SHORES OF BERMUDA THROUGH THIS MORNING. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm FAY Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2014-10-12 16:34:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 12 2014 000 FONT12 KNHC 121434 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014 1500 UTC SUN OCT 12 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Tropical Storm FAY Forecast Advisory Number 10
2014-10-12 16:33:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 12 2014 000 WTNT22 KNHC 121433 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014 1500 UTC SUN OCT 12 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... NONE TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 62.8W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 21 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 240SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 62.8W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 63.8W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 35.5N 59.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 90SE 70SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 180SE 150SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 36.0N 52.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 90SE 120SW 120NW. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 210SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 36.0N 46.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 180SE 120SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 34.0N 42.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 90SE 120SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.0N 62.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm FAY Graphics
2014-10-12 13:45:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 12 Oct 2014 11:45:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 12 Oct 2014 09:04:45 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm FAY (AT2/AL072014)
2014-10-12 13:43:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FAY LASHES BERMUDA WITH GUSTS TO 82 MPH... As of 8:00 AM AST Sun Oct 12 the center of FAY was located near 33.4, -63.9 with movement NNE at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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