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Hurricane GONZALO Forecast Discussion Number 25

2014-10-18 16:56:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST SAT OCT 18 2014 000 WTNT43 KNHC 181456 TCDAT3 HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 1100 AM AST SAT OCT 18 2014 Gonzalo's convective canopy is becoming ragged and substantially asymmetric with the cold clouds primarily seen in the northern semicircle. Subjective Dvorak and the objective Advanced Dvorak Technique suggest a range from 65 to 77 kt for the maximum sustained winds, while the CIMSS Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit estimate indicates about 85 kt. A blend of these gives 80 kt for the initial intensity, a considerable drop from the previous advisory. As Gonzalo will be moving north of the warm Gulf Stream waters and experiencing increasingly hostile vertical wind shear over the next day, the hurricane should steadily weaken. In about a day, extratropical transition should occur, consistent with the FSU Cyclone Phase Space and SHIPS diagnostic analyses. However, rather than getting a baroclinic kick after ET, Gonzalo is anticipated by the global model guidance to continue weakening until dissipation in about three days. The NHC intensity forecast is based upon the IVCN multi-model intensity consensus while a tropical cyclone and upon the GFS and ECMWF global models while the system is extratropical. Gonzalo is moving toward the north-northeast at 22 kt, as it is being advected along in the south-southwesterlies north of the subtropical ridge. The system should accelerate as it gets picked up by the core of the jet stream and becomes extratropical. The NHC track forecast is based upon the tightly clustered TVCN multi-model consensus and is just slightly westward of the previous advisory. The initial tropical storm and hurricane-force wind radii were analyzed to be larger than previously indicated based on a 0922Z AMSU pass, as indicated by the CIRA size analyses. The post-tropical portion of the forecast has been coordinated with the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 36.8N 61.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 40.8N 58.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 47.0N 50.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 20/0000Z 51.3N 38.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 20/1200Z 53.5N 23.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea

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Summary for Hurricane GONZALO (AT3/AL082014)

2014-10-18 16:55:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...GONZALO FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Oct 18 the center of GONZALO was located near 36.8, -61.7 with movement NNE at 25 mph. The minimum central pressure was 966 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

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Hurricane GONZALO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25

2014-10-18 16:55:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014 000 FONT13 KNHC 181455 PWSAT3 HURRICANE GONZALO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 1500 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X 56(56) 29(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X 9( 9) 30(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X 59(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SABLE ISLAND 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA

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Hurricane GONZALO Forecast Advisory Number 25

2014-10-18 16:55:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014 000 WTNT23 KNHC 181454 TCMAT3 HURRICANE GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 1500 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR... * ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 61.7W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 22 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 100SE 80SW 70NW. 34 KT.......150NE 180SE 120SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 220SW 320NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 61.7W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.5N 62.8W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 40.8N 58.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 47.0N 50.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 100SE 70SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 210SE 150SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 51.3N 38.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 120SE 90SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 240SE 180SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 53.5N 23.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 240SE 320SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.8N 61.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA

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