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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Public Advisory Number 8A
2020-07-23 19:33:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Thu Jul 23 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 231733 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gonzalo Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 200 PM AST Thu Jul 23 2020 ...GONZALO A LITTLE WEAKER... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.7N 48.8W ABOUT 850 MI...1370 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT... A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required for some of these islands later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located near latitude 9.7 North, longitude 48.8 West. Gonzalo is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Gonzalo will approach the southern Windward Islands Friday night and move across the islands Saturday and Saturday evening. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some re-strengthening is possible during the next couple of days, and there is still a chance that Gonzalo could become a hurricane. The satellite wind data indicate that Gonzalo is an even smaller storm than previously thought, and tropical-storm-force winds only extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane or tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on Saturday. RAINFALL: Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches in Barbados and the Windward Islands from Friday night through Sunday night. Gonzalo is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches in Trinidad and Tobago. Rainfall in Barbados and the Windward Islands could lead to life-threatening flash floods. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Graphics
2020-07-23 16:47:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 23 Jul 2020 14:47:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 23 Jul 2020 14:47:14 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Gonzalo (AT2/AL072020)
2020-07-23 16:45:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GONZALO FACES AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE... ...BUT EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON SATURDAY... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Jul 23 the center of Gonzalo was located near 9.6, -48.3 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Public Advisory Number 8
2020-07-23 16:45:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Jul 23 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 231445 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gonzalo Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 1100 AM AST Thu Jul 23 2020 ...GONZALO FACES AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE... ...BUT EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.6N 48.3W ABOUT 885 MI...1425 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT... A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required for some of these islands later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located near latitude 9.6 North, longitude 48.3 West. Gonzalo is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Gonzalo will approach the southern Windward Islands Friday night and move across the islands Saturday and Saturday evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Gonzalo could become a hurricane tonight or on Friday. Gonzalo is a small storm, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by Saturday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions possible by midday Saturday. RAINFALL: Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches in Barbados and the Windward Islands from Friday night through Sunday night. Gonzalo is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches in Trinidad and Tobago. Rainfall in Barbados and the Windward Islands could lead to life-threatening flash floods. Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-07-23 16:45:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Jul 23 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 231445 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 1100 AM AST Thu Jul 23 2020 Recently-obtained GCOM and WindSat microwave data from overnight shows that Gonzalo's center is a little farther south than previously estimated. In addition, the storm's structure has become a little disheveled since yesterday, with the deep convection losing some organization. SAB's data-T number responded to this by falling to 2.5, but overall the CI numbers and SATCON support maintaining 55 kt for now. There is still an incredible amount of uncertainty in Gonzalo's intensity forecast. Sea surface temperatures to the east of the Windward Islands are warm--close to 29C--and the storm is likely to be moving through an environment of relatively light shear at least for the next 48 hours or so. The ambient environment is not particularly moist, however, with mid-level relative humidity generally around 50 percent, and it already appears that this dry air is affecting Gonzalo. Small cyclones like Gonzalo tend to succumb to any type of adverse environmental conditions quite easily, and it's possible that the system could struggle during the next couple of days. This is the solution shown by some of the global models, particularly the ECMWF and UKMET. On the other hand, the hurricane statistical and dynamical models, as well as the GFS, continue to show Gonzalo strengthening to a hurricane before it reaches the Windward Islands. Out of an abundance of caution, the official forecast continues to show Gonzalo becoming a hurricane in about 24 hours, but the uncertainty in this scenario cannot be stressed enough. There is a higher degree of certainty that Gonzalo would weaken once it moves over the eastern and central Caribbean Sea, where even the GFS shows it opening up into a wave. Even with the southward adjustment of the initial position, Gonzalo still appears to be moving westward, or 270/12 kt. The subtropical ridge to the north is forecast to push Gonzalo toward the west or west-northwest, with an increase in forward speed, for the entire 5-day forecast period. Much of the track uncertainty hinges on exactly how strong Gonzalo gets, with the stronger model representations showing the storm making more poleward process. Models such as the ECMWF and UKMET, which keep Gonzalo weak or open it up into a trough, are along the southern side of the guidance envelope. The updated NHC track forecast has been shifted southward some, to account for the new initial position and to be a little closer to the intensity consensus, HCCA, and the Florida State Superensemble. Key Messages 1. There is an increasing risk of wind and rain impacts from Gonzalo in portions of the southern Windward Islands this weekend, however there is significant uncertainty in how strong Gonzalo will be when it moves across the islands. 2. Despite the uncertainty in Gonzalo's future intensity, hurricane conditions are possible across portions of the southern Windward Islands. Hurricane Watches are currently in effect for Barbados and St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and additional watches for other islands could be required later today. Interests in the southern Windward Islands should monitor the progress of Gonzalo and follow any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 9.6N 48.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 9.8N 50.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 10.1N 52.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 10.5N 55.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 11.2N 59.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 26/0000Z 11.9N 62.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 12.6N 65.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 14.0N 71.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 28/1200Z 15.5N 77.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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