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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Forecast Advisory Number 11

2020-07-24 10:41:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 24 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 240841 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020 0900 UTC FRI JUL 24 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA. THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. LUCIA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TOBAGO * GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 51.8W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 45SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 51.8W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 51.2W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 10.3N 53.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 11.0N 56.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 12.0N 59.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 13.0N 63.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 13.7N 66.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 14.0N 69.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.0N 51.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 24/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Graphics

2020-07-24 07:37:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 24 Jul 2020 05:37:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 24 Jul 2020 03:24:51 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Storm Gonzalo (AT2/AL072020)

2020-07-24 07:35:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...COMPACT GONZALO EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS ON SATURDAY... As of 2:00 AM AST Fri Jul 24 the center of Gonzalo was located near 9.9, -51.2 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Public Advisory Number 10A

2020-07-24 07:35:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 200 AM AST Fri Jul 24 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 240535 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gonzalo Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 200 AM AST Fri Jul 24 2020 ...COMPACT GONZALO EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.9N 51.2W ABOUT 685 MI...1105 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT... A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Tobago * Grenada and its dependencies A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required for some of these islands later this morning. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located near latitude 9.9 North, longitude 51.2 West. Gonzalo is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Gonzalo will approach the southern Windward Islands tonight and move across these islands Saturday and into the eastern Caribbean Sea Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and there is still a chance that Gonzalo could become a hurricane before reaching the Windward Islands. Weakening is expected after Gonzalo moves into the Caribbean Sea and the cyclone is expected to dissipate by the middle of next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane or tropical storm conditions are possible within the respective watch areas on Saturday. RAINFALL: Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches in Barbados and the Windward Islands tonight through Sunday night. Gonzalo is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches in Trinidad and Tobago. Rainfall in Barbados and the Windward Islands could lead to life-threatening flash floods. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts

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