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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2020-07-24 22:36:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 24 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 242036 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GONZALO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020 2100 UTC FRI JUL 24 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GONZALO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CURACAO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT VINCENT 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRENADA 34 X 10(10) 20(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) GRENADA 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X 27(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) TRINIDADTOBAGO 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORT OF SPAIN 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JUANGRIEGO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tropical Storm Gonzalo Public Advisory Number 13
2020-07-24 22:36:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Jul 24 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 242036 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gonzalo Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 500 PM AST Fri Jul 24 2020 ...GONZALO FORECAST TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.0N 55.6W ABOUT 390 MI...625 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... The government of Trinidad and Tobago has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Tobago and Grenada. The government of St. Lucia has canceled the Tropical Storm Warning for St. Lucia. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Vincent and the Grenadines * Tobago * Grenada and its dependencies A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within about 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located near latitude 10.0 North, longitude 55.6 West. Gonzalo is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Gonzalo will move across the southern Windward Islands Saturday afternoon or evening and over the eastern Caribbean Sea on Sunday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Gonzalo's maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible before Gonzalo reaches the southern Windward Islands. Weakening is expected after Gonzalo moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea and the system is forecast to dissipate early next week. Data from the Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web a www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area beginning on Saturday. RAINFALL: Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches in Barbados and the Windward Islands through Sunday night. Gonzalo is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches in Trinidad and Tobago as well as 1 to 2 inches over northeastern Venezuela. Rainfall in Barbados and the Windward Islands could lead to life-threatening flash floods. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Forecast Advisory Number 13
2020-07-24 22:36:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 24 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 242036 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020 2100 UTC FRI JUL 24 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR TOBAGO AND GRENADA. THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS CANCELED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES * TOBAGO * GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 55.6W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 55.6W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 54.8W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 10.4N 58.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 11.4N 61.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 12.2N 64.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 13.1N 67.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 13.4N 71.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.0N 55.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 25/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Graphics
2020-07-24 19:47:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 24 Jul 2020 17:47:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 24 Jul 2020 15:24:53 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Gonzalo (AT2/AL072020)
2020-07-24 19:46:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INVESTIGATING GONZALO... ...GONZALO EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS ON SATURDAY... As of 2:00 PM AST Fri Jul 24 the center of Gonzalo was located near 9.9, -54.8 with movement W at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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