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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Graphics
2020-07-23 11:10:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 23 Jul 2020 09:10:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 23 Jul 2020 09:24:40 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Gonzalo (AT2/AL072020)
2020-07-23 10:48:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GONZALO STRENGTHENS AGAIN WHILE STILL HEADING DUE WEST... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Jul 23 the center of Gonzalo was located near 10.0, -47.0 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Public Advisory Number 7
2020-07-23 10:48:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Jul 23 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 230848 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gonzalo Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 500 AM AST Thu Jul 23 2020 ...GONZALO STRENGTHENS AGAIN WHILE STILL HEADING DUE WEST... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.0N 47.0W ABOUT 970 MI...1565 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT... A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Barbados A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required for some of these islands later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located near latitude 10.0 North, longitude 47.0 West. Gonzalo is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A general westward motion at a faster forward speed is expected followed by a turn toward the west-northwest on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Gonzalo would approach the Windward Islands late Friday and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Further strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Gonzalo is expected to become a hurricane later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Graphics
2020-07-23 10:43:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 23 Jul 2020 08:43:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 23 Jul 2020 03:24:51 GMT
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-07-23 10:42:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Jul 23 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 230842 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 500 AM AST Thu Jul 23 2020 A 0441 UTC ATMS/Soumi NPP microwave overpass revealed a well-developed banding feature wrapping into the center from the east semi-circle. Cloud tops have once again cooled near the surface center and subsequently, the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB have increased to T3.5 (55 kt). Accordingly, the initial intensity is raised to 55 kt for this advisory. No major changes were made to the intensity forecast and there still remains a relatively high degree of uncertainty beyond day 3 while the cyclone moves through the Caribbean Sea. Strengthening is forecast through 48 hours as Gonzalo approaches the Islands and the forecast is close to a blend of the HCCA intensity consensus, the IVCN multi-model guidance and the Decay SHIPS. Beyond mid-period, the forecast reflects a weakening trend in respect to the European models solution, but at much more gradual rate. It should also be noted that the small size of this system makes it susceptible to significant fluctuations in intensity, both upward and downward. The initial motion is estimated to be due west, or 270/10 kt. The forecast track philosophy remains unchanged. Gonzalo is moving within low to mid-level easterly steering flow produced by a subtropical ridge anchored to the north of the cyclone, and this high pressure should steer the storm generally westward at a faster forward speed for the next few days. After that time, a motion toward the west-northwest is expected. Two distinct model clusters with differing forecast track solutions persist. The European models along with the Canadian indicate a weak cyclone moving generally westward through the southern Windward Islands and dissipating in 5 days or less. The NCEP models, on the other hand, show a much stronger tropical cyclone with a west-northwestward to northwestward motion toward Hispaniola. The NHC forecast basically down the middle of these to model clusters and is very close to the TVCA consensus aid. Interests in the Windward Islands should continue to monitor the progress of this system. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Barbados. Key Messages 1. There is an increasing risk of wind and rain impacts from Gonzalo in portions of the southern Windward Islands this weekend. Hurricane conditions are possible on Barbados where a hurricane watch has been issued. Interests in the southern Windward Islands should monitor the progress of Gonzalo and follow any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 10.0N 47.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 10.1N 48.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 10.4N 51.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 10.9N 53.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 11.5N 57.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 25/1800Z 12.2N 60.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 26/0600Z 13.0N 63.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 27/0600Z 14.8N 68.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 28/0600Z 16.5N 74.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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