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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Public Advisory Number 12A
2020-07-24 19:46:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Fri Jul 24 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 241746 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gonzalo Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 200 PM AST Fri Jul 24 2020 ...HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INVESTIGATING GONZALO... ...GONZALO EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.9N 54.8W ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.76 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... The government of Barbados has canceled the Hurricane Watch for Barbados and St. Vincent and the Grenadines. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT... A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Vincent and the Grenadines * St. Lucia A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Tobago * Grenada and its dependencies A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 9.9 North, longitude 54.8 West. Gonzalo is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Gonzalo will approach the southern Windward Islands tonight and then move across the islands on Saturday and over the eastern Caribbean Sea on Sunday. The Hurricane Hunter aircraft has not yet completed its survey of Gonzalo, but preliminary data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. There is considerable uncertainty in the intensity forecast, but some strengthening is possible during the next day or so before Gonzalo reaches the southern Windward Islands. Weakening is expected after Gonzalo moves into the Caribbean Sea, and the cyclone is expected to dissipate by the middle of next week. Gonzalo is a small tropical cyclone. Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The most recent minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter plane was 1008 mb (29.76 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area on Saturday. RAINFALL: Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches in Barbados and the Windward Islands through Sunday night. Gonzalo is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches in Trinidad and Tobago as well as 1 to 2 inches over northeastern Venezuela. Rainfall in Barbados and the Windward Islands could lead to life-threatening flash floods. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Graphics
2020-07-24 16:59:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 24 Jul 2020 14:59:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 24 Jul 2020 15:24:53 GMT
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Forecast Discussion Number 12
2020-07-24 16:58:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Jul 24 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 241458 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 1100 AM AST Fri Jul 24 2020 Gonzalo continues to produce bursts of deep convection, especially in the southeast quadrant, but has not become any better organized overall since the last advisory. Microwave imagery overnight indicated the low-level structure of Gonzalo is still largely intact, but this has not translated into better convective organization. ASCAT data valid shortly after 12Z revealed that Gonzalo has accelerated west faster than anticipated and has not strengthened. In fact the strongest winds in the ASCAT data were only 30-35 kt. The resolution of ASCAT likely limits its ability to sample the actual max winds of small storms like Gonzalo, but it is another indication that the cyclone has not strengthened and could be weakening. The initial intensity for this advisory is set at 45 kt, based primarily on the latest TAFB Dvorak fix and the UW-CIMSS SATCON. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft scheduled to investigate the storm this afternoon will provide a more information about Gonzalo's intensity and structure. Due primarily to the adjusted initial position, the NHC track forecast has been adjusted a fair amount west and south of the previous advisory. Overall Gonzalo is still forecast to move generally westward or west-northwestward through the period, steered by the subtropical ridge to the north. The new NHC forecast lies between the old forecast, adjusted for the new initial position, and the HFIP Corrected Consensus. The intensity guidance is generally lower than it has been for the last day or so, and none of the operational models forecast Gonzalo to reach hurricane strength. Unfortunately, small storms like Gonzalo are often subject to large swings in intensity, up or down, and that aspect of the forecast remains highly uncertain, even though the spread in the guidance is not particularly high. The NHC forecast has been adjusted only slightly lower for this cycle and is now above all of the guidance at the time the system is forecast to pass through the Windward Islands. A larger adjustment could be made later today if the most recent model trends continue, or if the recon mission finds that Gonzalo is even weaker than the current estimates. Key Messages 1. Gonzalo is forecast to bring tropical storm conditions across portions of the southern Windward Islands Saturday and Saturday night. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warning and Watches are currently in effect for some of the islands. Interests in the southern Windward Islands should monitor the progress of Gonzalo and follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Gonzalo is expected to produce heavy rain over portions of the southern Windward Islands. This could lead to life-threatening flash flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 10.0N 54.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 10.5N 56.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 11.4N 59.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 12.4N 62.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 13.0N 65.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 27/0000Z 13.7N 69.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 14.0N 72.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Forecast Advisory Number 12
2020-07-24 16:57:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 24 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 241457 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020 1500 UTC FRI JUL 24 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES * ST. LUCIA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TOBAGO * GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 54.2W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 45SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 54.2W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 53.3W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 10.5N 56.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 11.4N 59.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 12.4N 62.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 13.0N 65.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 13.7N 69.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 14.0N 72.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.0N 54.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 24/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Summary for Tropical Storm Gonzalo (AT2/AL072020)
2020-07-24 16:57:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GONZALO ACCELERATES TOWARD THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS... ...EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS ON SATURDAY... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Jul 24 the center of Gonzalo was located near 10.0, -54.2 with movement W at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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