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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Graphics
2020-07-25 10:46:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 25 Jul 2020 08:46:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 25 Jul 2020 08:46:51 GMT
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Forecast Discussion Number 15
2020-07-25 10:43:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Jul 25 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 250843 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 500 AM AST Sat Jul 25 2020 On the last leg in the east semicircle of Gonzalo, the 53rd Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported numerous SFMR winds of 35 to 40 kts, with lighter winds at flight-level. The surface circulation, however, was still poorly defined, and barely closed. Based on the reconnaissance observations, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory. Due to the fact that Gonzalo is moving within an impeding thermodynamic environment, little change in intensity is forecast as the cyclone approaches the southern Windward Islands this afternoon. As Gonzalo moves into the eastern Caribbean Sea, lingering large-scale subsidence and the cyclone's close proximity to the coast of Venezuela are predicted to cause the system to weaken and degenerate into a trough of low pressure in a couple of days which is consistent with the global model's solution. The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 270/15 kt. Gonzalo should gain very little latitude with time as it continues moving westward to west-northwestward within the fresh low-level tradewind flow. The official forecast is once again nudged a bit toward the south and aligns with the NOAA HFIP HCCA consensus model. Key Messages 1. Gonzalo is forecast to bring tropical storm conditions to a portion of the southern Windward Islands today and tonight. Tropical Storm Warnings are currently in effect for some of the islands. Interests in the southern Windward Islands should monitor the progress of Gonzalo and follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Gonzalo is expected to produce heavy rain over portions of the southern Windward Islands. This could lead to life-threatening flash flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 10.1N 58.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 10.7N 61.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 11.5N 65.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 12.1N 69.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Summary for Tropical Storm Gonzalo (AT2/AL072020)
2020-07-25 10:42:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...POORLY ORGANIZED GONZALO STILL PRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... ...GONZALO FORECAST TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN TO A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Jul 25 the center of Gonzalo was located near 10.1, -58.7 with movement W at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Public Advisory Number 15
2020-07-25 10:42:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Jul 25 2020 660 WTNT32 KNHC 250842 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gonzalo Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 500 AM AST Sat Jul 25 2020 ...POORLY ORGANIZED GONZALO STILL PRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... ...GONZALO FORECAST TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN TO A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.1N 58.7W ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM E OF TRINIDAD MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * St. Vincent and the Grenadines * Tobago * Grenada and its dependencies A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located near latitude 10.1 North, longitude 58.7 West. Gonzalo is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Gonzalo will move across the southern Windward Islands this afternoon or evening and over the southeastern Caribbean Sea on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before Gonzalo reaches the southern Windward Islands later today. Weakening is expected after Gonzalo moves over the southeastern Caribbean Sea, and the system is forecast to dissipate by Sunday night or Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web a www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area today. RAINFALL: Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches in Barbados, the Windward Islands and Trinidad and Tobago through Sunday night. Gonzalo is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches in northeastern Venezuela through Monday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Forecast Advisory Number 15
2020-07-25 10:42:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 25 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 250842 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020 0900 UTC SAT JUL 25 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES * TOBAGO * GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 58.7W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 58.7W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 57.8W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 10.7N 61.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 11.5N 65.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 12.1N 69.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.1N 58.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 25/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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