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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Graphics
2020-07-24 10:48:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 24 Jul 2020 08:48:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 24 Jul 2020 08:48:10 GMT
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Forecast Discussion Number 11
2020-07-24 10:42:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Jul 24 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 240842 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 500 AM AST Fri Jul 24 2020 Conventional satellite imagery indicates that Gonzalo's cloud pattern has changed little during the past several hours. The cyclone continues to produce an area of deep convection, although quite shapeless, with very cold cloud tops. A compromise of the subjective T-numbers from TAFB and SAB along with an earlier SATCON estimate of 55 kt yields an initial intensity of 50 kt for this advisory. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft scheduled to investigate the storm later this afternoon will provide a more precise intensity estimate. The statistical-dynamical intensity guidance as well as the deterministic models all show Gonzalo strengthening as it approaches the southern Windward Islands. The HWRF, Decay SHIPS and the LGEM are the only guidance indicating a hurricane around the 36 hour period. Afterward, Gonzalo is forecast to move into a more inhibiting thermodynamic environment over the weekend. Accordingly, the intensity forecast calls for weakening on Sunday as Gonzalo enters the eastern Caribbean sea and dissipation in 96 hours, or sooner as a couple of the large-scale models suggest. The intensity forecast is basically an update of the previous advisory through 36 hours, indicating a hurricane approaching and moving over the southern Windward Islands, and a faster weakening trend afterward, out of respect to the global model's prediction. The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 275/12 kt and Gonzalo is being steered by a building subtropical ridge to the system's north. The cyclone is expected to increase in forward speed toward the west and west-northwest through the entire period. The NHC official forecast is an update of the previous advisory and is based on the various consensus aids. Key Messages 1. The risk of wind and rain impacts from Gonzalo in portions of the southern Windward Islands this weekend continues to increase, however there is significant uncertainty in how strong Gonzalo will be when it moves across the islands. 2. Despite the uncertainty in Gonzalo's future intensity, hurricane or tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the southern Windward Islands Saturday and Saturday night. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warning and Watches are currently in effect for some of the islands. Interests in the southern Windward Islands should monitor the progress of Gonzalo and follow any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 10.0N 51.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 10.3N 53.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 11.0N 56.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 12.0N 59.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 13.0N 63.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 26/1800Z 13.7N 66.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 14.0N 69.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2020-07-24 10:42:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 24 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 240842 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GONZALO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020 0900 UTC FRI JUL 24 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GONZALO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 32(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAINT VINCENT 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BARBADOS 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) 4(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) BARBADOS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARBADOS 64 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRENADA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) GRENADA 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GRENADA 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) TRINIDADTOBAGO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) TRINIDADTOBAGO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Summary for Tropical Storm Gonzalo (AT2/AL072020)
2020-07-24 10:41:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TINY GONZALO EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS ON SATURDAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Jul 24 the center of Gonzalo was located near 10.0, -51.8 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Public Advisory Number 11
2020-07-24 10:41:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Jul 24 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 240841 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gonzalo Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 500 AM AST Fri Jul 24 2020 ...TINY GONZALO EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.0N 51.8W ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... The government of St. Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for St. Lucia. The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm warning for Barbados, St. Vincent and the Grenadines. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT... A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * St. Lucia A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Tobago * Grenada and its dependencies A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located near latitude 10.0 North, longitude 51.8 West. Gonzalo is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Gonzalo will approach the southern Windward Islands tonight and move across these islands Saturday and into the eastern Caribbean Sea Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and there is still a chance that Gonzalo could become a hurricane before reaching the Windward Islands. Weakening is expected after Gonzalo moves into the Caribbean Sea, and the cyclone is expected to dissipate by the middle of next week. Gonzalo is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane or tropical storm conditions are possible within the respective watch areas on Saturday. RAINFALL: Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches in Barbados and the Windward Islands tonight through Sunday night. Gonzalo is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches in Trinidad and Tobago. Rainfall in Barbados and the Windward Islands could lead to life-threatening flash floods. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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