je.st

Home › gonzalo

Tag: gonzalo

Tropical Storm Gonzalo Forecast Discussion Number 10

2020-07-24 04:40:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Jul 23 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 240240 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 1100 PM AST Thu Jul 23 2020 After ingesting a hefty portion of dry high statically stable air this morning, Gonzalo appears to be on the comeback trail. Enhanced infrared BD-curve imagery shows that a small Central Dense Overcast with cloud tops of -80C is redeveloping over the surface center. A compromise of the available subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates supports maintaining 50 kt for this advisory. This morning's upper air sounding from Barbados revealed a very dry, high statically stable atmosphere with a mean RH of 23 percent and a CAPE of only 327 J/Kg. Consequently, Gonzalo will be moving into a rather harsh thermodynamic environment over the weekend. As a result, the NHC forecast calls for weakening beyond the 48 hour period as it enters the eastern Caribbean sea and dissipation well south of Hispaniola at day 5, or sooner as a few of the global models suggest. The intensity forecast is basically an update of the previous advisory through 48 hours, indicating a hurricane approaching and moving over the southern Windward Islands, and a faster weakening trend beyond day 2, similar to a consensus of the large-scale models. The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 275/12 kt within the stiff mid-tropospheric steering flow provided by an anchored subtropical ridge to the cyclone's north. The song remains the same, with Gonzalo expected to speed up toward the west and west-northwest through the entire period. The NHC official forecast is based on a blend of the various consensus aids and is down the middle of the tightly clustered guidance. Key Messages 1. The risk of wind and rain impacts from Gonzalo in portions of the southern Windward Islands this weekend continues to increase, however there is significant uncertainty in how strong Gonzalo will be when it moves across the islands. 2. Despite the uncertainty in Gonzalo's future intensity, hurricane or tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the southern Windward Islands Saturday and Saturday night. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches are currently in effect for some of the islands, and additional watches or warnings could be required tonight or early Friday. Interests in the southern Windward Islands should monitor the progress of Gonzalo and follow any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 9.9N 50.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 10.2N 52.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 10.7N 55.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 11.5N 58.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 12.3N 61.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 26/1200Z 13.3N 64.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 13.9N 67.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 28/0000Z 14.4N 73.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

Summary for Tropical Storm Gonzalo (AT2/AL072020)

2020-07-24 04:39:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...GONZALO A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED... ...EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS ON SATURDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Jul 23 the center of Gonzalo was located near 9.9, -50.6 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Tags: summary storm tropical tropical storm

Tropical Storm Gonzalo Public Advisory Number 10

2020-07-24 04:39:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Jul 23 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 240239 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gonzalo Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 1100 PM AST Thu Jul 23 2020 ...GONZALO A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED... ...EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.9N 50.6W ABOUT 730 MI...1170 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT... A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Tobago * Grenada and its dependencies A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required for some of these islands tonight or on Friday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located near latitude 9.9 North, longitude 50.6 West. Gonzalo is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Gonzalo will approach the southern Windward Islands Friday night and move across the islands Saturday and into the eastern Caribbean Sea Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and there is still a chance that Gonzalo could become a hurricane. Weakening is expected after Gonzalo moves into the Caribbean Sea and the cyclone is expected to dissipate by the middle of next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane or tropical storm conditions are possible within the respective watch areas on Saturday. RAINFALL: Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches in Barbados and the Windward Islands from Friday night through Sunday night. Gonzalo is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches in Trinidad and Tobago. Rainfall in Barbados and the Windward Islands could lead to life-threatening flash floods. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts

Tags: number public storm advisory

Tropical Storm Gonzalo Forecast Advisory Number 10

2020-07-24 04:39:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUL 24 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 240238 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020 0300 UTC FRI JUL 24 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TOBAGO * GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE ISLANDS TONIGHT OR ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 50.6W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 15SE 15SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 50.6W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 50.0W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 10.2N 52.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 10.7N 55.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 11.5N 58.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 12.3N 61.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 13.3N 64.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 13.9N 67.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 14.4N 73.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.9N 50.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 24/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Tags: number storm advisory tropical