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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Graphics
2020-07-23 04:54:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 23 Jul 2020 02:54:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 23 Jul 2020 02:54:35 GMT
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-07-23 04:35:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Jul 22 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 230235 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 1100 PM AST Wed Jul 22 2020 A series of earlier microwave passes over Gonzalo reveal a small eye feature beneath a relatively ragged, Central Dense Overcast with associated -75.5C cloud tops. Based on the evidence of the small eye and a blend of the subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity is raised to 50 kt for advisory. The intensity forecast philosophy remains the same as the previous advisory with a higher than normal degree of uncertainty in the latter half of the period as the cyclone moves through the Caribbean. Gonzalo should remain in an environment of relatively low shear, although the impacts of dry, stable air and large-scale subsidence could hamper further intensification in a few days. It's worth noting that the ECMWF Ensemble model is showing a pretty significant low- to mid-level easterly surge that spreads just to the north of the cyclone's forecast track and over the northeastern Caribbean in a couple of days. This predicted event could possibly curtail strengthening at that time. On the other hand, with the exception of the ECMWF, the global models now show the cyclone maintaining tropical storm strength while moving into the eastern Caribbean. The official intensity forecast is adjusted slightly above the previous forecast, hedging toward the HFIP HCCA consensus and the IVCN multi-model intensity aid solutions. It should also be noted that the small size of this system makes it susceptible to significant fluctuations in intensity, both upward and downward. The initial motion is estimated to be due west, or 270/10 kt. There is no change to the track forecast philosophy. Gonzalo is on the south side of a low- to mid-level tropospheric ridge, and this feature should steer the storm generally westward at a faster forward speed for the next few days. After that time, a motion toward the west-northwest is expected. The NHC track forecast is nudged a bit to the north of the previous one and is close to the various consensus aids. Interests in the Windward Islands should continue to monitor the progress of this system. A Hurricane Watch is now issued for Barbados. Key Messages 1. Gonzalo is expected to move near or over the southern Windward Islands this weekend, and could bring direct impacts from winds and heavy rainfall. While it is too soon to determine the magnitude and timing of those impacts, interests in the southern Windward Islands should monitor the progress of Gonzalo. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 9.9N 45.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 10.0N 47.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 10.2N 50.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 10.6N 52.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 11.2N 55.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 25/1200Z 11.8N 58.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 12.6N 61.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 27/0000Z 14.3N 67.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 28/0000Z 15.6N 73.1W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2020-07-23 04:34:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 230234 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GONZALO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020 0300 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GONZALO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PT GALLINAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CURACAO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 3(14) X(14) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 4(24) X(24) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 7(35) X(35) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) X(12) SAINT VINCENT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 33(34) 2(36) X(36) BARBADOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) BARBADOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GRENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 5(25) X(25) GRENADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) GRENADA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 2(19) X(19) TRINIDADTOBAGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) TRINIDADTOBAGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PORT OF SPAIN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) JUANGRIEGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Summary for Tropical Storm Gonzalo (AT2/AL072020)
2020-07-23 04:33:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GONZALO A LITTLE STRONGER AND HEADING DUE WEST... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR BARBADOS... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Jul 22 the center of Gonzalo was located near 9.9, -45.9 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Public Advisory Number 6
2020-07-23 04:33:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Jul 22 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 230233 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gonzalo Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 1100 PM AST Wed Jul 22 2020 ...GONZALO A LITTLE STRONGER AND HEADING DUE WEST... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR BARBADOS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.9N 45.9W ABOUT 1045 MI...1685 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- The government of Barbados has issued a Hurricane Watch for Barbados. Interests in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located near latitude 9.9 North, longitude 45.9 West. Gonzalo is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A general westward motion at a faster forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Gonzalo would approach the Windward Islands late Friday and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Further strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Gonzalo is expected to become a hurricane on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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