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Hurricane DARBY Forecast Advisory Number 30
2016-07-19 04:30:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 19 2016 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 190230 TCMEP5 HURRICANE DARBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052016 0300 UTC TUE JUL 19 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 133.2W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 133.2W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 132.7W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 19.6N 134.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.0N 136.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.1N 139.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.9N 141.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 19.5N 145.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 19.0N 150.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 20.0N 152.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 133.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Hurricane DARBY (EP5/EP052016)
2016-07-18 16:40:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DARBY WEAKENING OVER COOL WATER... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Mon Jul 18 the center of DARBY was located near 18.7, -131.1 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane DARBY Public Advisory Number 28
2016-07-18 16:40:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT MON JUL 18 2016 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 181440 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE DARBY ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052016 800 AM PDT MON JUL 18 2016 ...DARBY WEAKENING OVER COOL WATER... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.7N 131.1W ABOUT 1395 MI...2250 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 1565 MI...2520 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Darby was located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 131.1 West. Darby is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Darby should become a tropical storm later today. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Hurricane DARBY Wind Speed Probabilities Number 28
2016-07-18 16:40:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 18 2016 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 181440 PWSEP5 HURRICANE DARBY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052016 1500 UTC MON JUL 18 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DARBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 131.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 8(24) X(24) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Hurricane DARBY Forecast Advisory Number 28
2016-07-18 16:38:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 18 2016 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 181438 TCMEP5 HURRICANE DARBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052016 1500 UTC MON JUL 18 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 131.1W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 150SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 131.1W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 130.6W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 19.1N 132.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 19.7N 135.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.1N 137.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.2N 139.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.6N 144.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 18.7N 149.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 18.8N 152.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 131.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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