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Hurricane DARBY Forecast Discussion Number 31
2016-07-19 10:34:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 19 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 190834 TCDEP5 HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052016 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 19 2016 Although deep convection has been decreasing since the previous advisory, Darby still has a well-defined and tight circulation. The initial intensity is held at 65 kt, in agreement with the Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB, but the automated values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin suggest that this estimate could be a little generous. Microwave data indicate that the low-level center of Darby is located to the south of the eye feature seen in infrared satellite images, which is likely the result of southerly shear. Using the microwave fixes, the initial motion estimate is 285/11 kt. A continued west-northwestward motion is expected today, followed by a motion slightly south of due west on Wednesday while Darby is steered by a narrow mid-level ridge to its north. By the end of the forecast period, a turn to the northwest is predicted when Darby approaches a trough to the north of the Hawaiian Islands. The new NHC track forecast is slightly faster than the previous one to come in line with latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF models. Darby is expected to remain over cool water for the next few days, before it tracks over SSTs around 26 deg C to the east of the Hawaiian Islands. However, the system will also be moving into an environment of increasing southwesterly shear by the time it reaches the warmer water. Therefore, gradual weakening is predicted through the period. This forecast is the same as the previous one and is in best agreement with the LGEM guidance. An ASCAT-B pass from around 0600 UTC was helpful in estimating the size of Darby's wind field. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 19.4N 134.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 19.8N 136.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 20.0N 138.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 20.0N 140.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 19.8N 142.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 19.3N 147.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 23/0600Z 19.4N 150.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 24/0600Z 20.5N 153.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Hurricane DARBY (EP5/EP052016)
2016-07-19 10:33:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DARBY HEADED TOWARD THE CENTRAL PACIFIC... ...FORECAST TO WEAKEN... As of 2:00 AM PDT Tue Jul 19 the center of DARBY was located near 19.4, -134.4 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane DARBY Public Advisory Number 31
2016-07-19 10:33:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 19 2016 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 190833 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE DARBY ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052016 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 19 2016 ...DARBY HEADED TOWARD THE CENTRAL PACIFIC... ...FORECAST TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 134.4W ABOUT 1345 MI...2165 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Darby was located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 134.4 West. Darby is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the west is forecast to occur tonight. Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Darby is likely to become a tropical storm later today. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane DARBY Wind Speed Probabilities Number 31
2016-07-19 10:33:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUL 19 2016 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 190833 PWSEP5 HURRICANE DARBY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052016 0900 UTC TUE JUL 19 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DARBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 134.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 145W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 25(37) 1(38) X(38) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 2(16) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 2(14) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane DARBY Forecast Advisory Number 31
2016-07-19 10:33:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUL 19 2016 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 190832 TCMEP5 HURRICANE DARBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052016 0900 UTC TUE JUL 19 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 134.4W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 90SE 180SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 134.4W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 133.9W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 19.8N 136.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.0N 138.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.0N 140.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.8N 142.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 19.3N 147.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 19.4N 150.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 20.5N 153.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 134.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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