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Post-Tropical Cyclone Vicky Forecast Advisory Number 15
2020-09-17 22:36:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 172036 TCMAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE VICKY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212020 2100 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 39.1W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 39.1W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 38.7W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 20.6N 40.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 19.9N 42.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 39.1W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON VICKY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE... UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Vicky Graphics
2020-09-17 16:40:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 17 Sep 2020 14:40:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 17 Sep 2020 15:41:39 GMT
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Tropical Depression Vicky Forecast Discussion Number 14
2020-09-17 16:40:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 17 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 171439 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Vicky Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 17 2020 Vicky is feeling the affects of very strong upper-level winds associated with the outflow of Hurricane Teddy. These winds have caused the remaining convection to be stripped well away from the center, and recent ASCAT data indicates that Vicky has weakened to a tropical depression. The ASCAT data support a peak wind speed of 30 kt. Vertical wind shear of 40-50 kt is forecast to continue plaguing Vicky, and the cyclone should continue to weaken and become a remnant low later today. The global models indicate that the circulation will open up into a trough within 36 to 48 hours, and the official forecast calls for dissipation within that time period. Now that Vicky has become a vertically shallow cyclone, it has turned south of due west and is moving 260/12 kt. Vicky or its remnants should turn west-southwestward later today as it is steered by the low-level northeasterly flow. The latest NHC track forecast is in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 21.4N 38.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 21.0N 39.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 18/1200Z 20.4N 41.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/0000Z 19.6N 43.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Depression Vicky (AT1/AL212020)
2020-09-17 16:39:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...VICKY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Sep 17 the center of Vicky was located near 21.4, -38.2 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Vicky Public Advisory Number 14
2020-09-17 16:39:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 17 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 171439 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Vicky Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 17 2020 ...VICKY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 38.2W ABOUT 1000 MI...1610 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Vicky was located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 38.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the west-southwest is expected later today, and that motion should continue through Friday. Satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next day or so, and Vicky is expected to become a remnant low later today. The cyclone is forecast to dissipate Friday night or early Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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