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Tropical Storm Vicky Graphics
2020-09-16 16:35:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 16 Sep 2020 14:35:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 16 Sep 2020 15:46:17 GMT
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Tropical Storm Vicky Forecast Discussion Number 10
2020-09-16 16:35:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 161434 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Vicky Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 Hostile vertical shear of 50 to 60 kt has finally taken a toll on Vicky. A 1227 UTC ASCAT-B overpass showed peak winds of 35 kt north of the center, and that is the basis for the advisory intensity. The strong shear is expected to continue while Vicky moves over marginal 26-27C SSTs, so additional weakening is forecast. Vicky should become a tropical depression in around 24 hours before weakening to a remnant low in about 2 days, with dissipation expected by day 3. However, the timing of when organized deep convection will finally cease is difficult to determine, so its is possible Vicky could weaken faster than indicated here or hang on a bit longer. The initial motion estimate is more westward, or 270/08. Vicky should continue moving westward for the next day or two before turning west-southwestward in the low-level flow. The new NHC track forecast is south of the previous one and is close to the new multi-model consensus aids. The ASCAT data were also used to modify the initial 34-kt wind radii. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 21.5N 34.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 21.6N 36.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 21.7N 37.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 21.5N 39.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 21.0N 41.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 19/0000Z 20.5N 42.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm Vicky Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2020-09-16 16:33:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 161433 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM VICKY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212020 1500 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICKY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Summary for Tropical Storm Vicky (AT1/AL212020)
2020-09-16 16:33:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...VICKY WEAKENING... As of 11:00 AM AST Wed Sep 16 the center of Vicky was located near 21.5, -34.7 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Vicky Public Advisory Number 10
2020-09-16 16:33:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 161433 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Vicky Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 ...VICKY WEAKENING... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.5N 34.7W ABOUT 795 MI...1280 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicky was located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 34.7 West. Vicky is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a westward motion is expected to continue through late Thursday. A west-southwestward motion is forecast to begin by Friday and continue through dissipation. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Vicky is expected to become a tropical depression Thursday, weaken to a remnant low on Friday, and dissipate Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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