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Tropical Storm Vicky Public Advisory Number 7

2020-09-15 22:33:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 152033 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Vicky Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 500 PM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 ...VICKY EXPECTED TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.2N 32.1W ABOUT 640 MI...1030 KM NW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicky was located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 32.1 West. Vicky is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A west-northwestward motion at a slightly slower forecast speed is forecast tonight and Wednesday, followed by a westward motion through dissipation. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Vicky is expected to become a tropical depression on Wednesday, weaken to a remnant low Wednesday night, and dissipate by Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brennan

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Tropical Storm Vicky Forecast Discussion Number 7

2020-09-15 22:33:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 152033 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Vicky Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 500 PM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 Vicky continues to be blasted by around 50 kt of westerly shear, with deep convection being continually removed from the center. Overall the coverage and intensity of the deep convection has decreased since this morning, and the initial intensity has been set to 40 kt based on a blend of the latest Dvorak estimates (30-35 kt) and SATCON (45 kt). The high shear is expected to persist, and that in combination with marginal SSTs should result in weakening, and Vicky is expected to become a remnant low in around 36 hours, with dissipation expected in about 3 days. The new NHC intensity forecast is close to HCCA and the IVCN consensus aids. The initial motion estimate is a bit faster toward the west-northwest or 300/10. Vicky should continue west-northwestward for the next 12 to 24 hours and then turn westward in the low-level flow before dissipation. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one, near the middle of the guidance envelope, and has been adjusted a bit slower toward the latest consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 21.2N 32.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 21.6N 33.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 22.1N 35.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 22.4N 37.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/1800Z 22.4N 38.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/0600Z 22.2N 40.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan

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Tropical Storm Vicky Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7

2020-09-15 22:33:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 152033 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM VICKY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212020 2100 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICKY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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Tropical Storm Vicky Forecast Advisory Number 7

2020-09-15 22:33:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 152033 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM VICKY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212020 2100 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 32.1W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 32.1W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 31.6W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 21.6N 33.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 22.1N 35.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 22.4N 37.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 22.4N 38.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 22.2N 40.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 32.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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