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Tropical Storm Vicky Public Advisory Number 9
2020-09-16 10:24:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 160824 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Vicky Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 500 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 ...VICKY EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.6N 33.9W ABOUT 755 MI...1215 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicky was located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 33.9 West. Vicky is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A westward motion is expected to begin later today, followed by a west-southwestward motion by late Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next few days, and the system could become a remnant low on Thursday or Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Vicky Forecast Advisory Number 9
2020-09-16 10:24:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 160824 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM VICKY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212020 0900 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 33.9W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 30SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 33.9W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 33.5W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 21.9N 35.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 22.0N 36.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 22.0N 38.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 21.7N 40.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 21.4N 42.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 20.8N 44.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 33.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Vicky Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-09-16 04:32:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 269 WTNT41 KNHC 160232 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Vicky Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 Vicky provided a surprise this evening, with scatterometer data showing a solid 45-kt in the northwestern quadrant of the storm. You would never guess it from the satellite images, which show a very sheared system that would at best support an 30-35 kt intensity, as indicated by the latest Dvorak estimates. The initial wind speed is set to 45 kt, higher than the last time but not really a true strengthening since conventional satellite data was a bit deceptive earlier. Despite Vicky holding its own, models are still showing the strong shear persisting, which should eventually cause weakening. The cyclone is likely to last longer than previously anticipated though with some upper-level divergence counteracting the effects of the shear, but Vicky is forecast gradually lose strength and decay in a remnant low in a couple of days, similar to the consensus guidance. The storm continues to more west-northwestward, a little to the left of previous, at 290/10. Vicky should gradually turn westward tomorrow and west-southwestward later this week as it becomes a shallower cyclone. The new forecast is quite similar to the previous one, leaning on the northern side of the well-clustered guidance envelope since Vicky is persisting as a deeper cyclone for the moment. The only small change is to add a 72-hour forecast point as the remnants could linger for a while longer. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 21.6N 33.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 22.0N 34.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 22.3N 36.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 22.4N 38.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 22.3N 39.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/1200Z 22.0N 41.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0000Z 21.5N 43.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Vicky Graphics
2020-09-16 04:32:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 16 Sep 2020 02:32:01 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 16 Sep 2020 02:32:01 GMT
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Tropical Storm Vicky Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2020-09-16 04:31:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 160231 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM VICKY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212020 0300 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICKY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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