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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Forecast Advisory Number 27
2019-09-10 04:31:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 10 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 100231 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082019 0300 UTC TUE SEP 10 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.1N 43.1W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 21 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 110SE 80SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 180SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.1N 43.1W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.5N 44.2W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 44.0N 39.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 110SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 46.6N 34.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 110SE 90SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 50.1N 27.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 110SE 110SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 54.0N 16.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.1N 43.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Graphics
2019-09-09 22:35:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Sep 2019 20:35:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Sep 2019 20:35:02 GMT
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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Forecast Discussion Number 26
2019-09-09 22:33:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 09 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 092033 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 500 PM AST Mon Sep 09 2019 Satellite imagery continues to show symmetric convection around the center of Gabrielle despite some gradual warming in the cloud tops seen in the latest GOES infrared imagery. The initial wind speed was maintained at 45 kt, near the TAFB satellite estimate and a little above the SAB estimate. Gabrielle remains on a northeastward motion and is moving a bit faster than the previous advisory, or 040/18 kt. The system is expected to further increase in forward speed in a similar direction over the next couple of days due to strengthening southwesterly flow near a mid-latitude trough. Only a slight northward adjustment was made to the prior NHC forecast since, overall, model guidance remains tightly clustered with the track of Gabrielle. The storm has less than a day over marginally warm waters before it crosses the north wall of the Gulf Stream and into much colder waters. Gabrielle should transition into an extratropical low on Tuesday night as a result of an increase in shear and low-level baroclinicity from an approaching cold front. The intensity forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous forecast and continues to use a blend of the GFS and ECMWF model wind fields. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 40.7N 45.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 42.6N 42.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 45.1N 37.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 48.2N 31.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 11/1800Z 52.0N 22.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Taylor/Blake
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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26
2019-09-09 22:33:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 09 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 092033 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082019 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 2100 UTC MON SEP 09 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER TAYLOR/BLAKE
Summary for Tropical Storm Gabrielle (AT3/AL082019)
2019-09-09 22:33:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GABRIELLE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Sep 9 the center of Gabrielle was located near 40.7, -45.4 with movement NE at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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