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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Forecast Advisory Number 24
2019-09-09 10:33:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 09 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 090833 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082019 0900 UTC MON SEP 09 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.7N 48.5W AT 09/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 210SE 180SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.7N 48.5W AT 09/0900Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.1N 49.0W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 39.7N 46.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 42.2N 42.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 44.8N 38.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 48.1N 31.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 55.8N 12.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.7N 48.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Graphics
2019-09-09 04:33:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Sep 2019 02:33:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Sep 2019 03:31:37 GMT
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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Forecast Discussion Number 23
2019-09-09 04:32:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 08 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 090232 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 08 2019 Gabrielle's cloud pattern has not become better organized since earlier today. The central convection has become a little more fragmented, and the center is estimated to be near the northern side of the main area of convection. There is a well-defined upper-level outflow jet over the southern portion of the circulation. The initial intensity is held at 55 kt in agreement with the latest Dvorak Current Intensity number from TAFB, although this may be generous given a recent ASCAT overpass of the storm. Gabrielle's window for additional strengthening should soon close, since the cyclone will be over warm waters for less than 24 hours, and the dynamical models indicate a significant increase in vertical shear during the next day or so. Therefore, only a slight short-term increase in strength seems likely. The official intensity forecast is in fairly good agreement with the latest corrected consensus guidance, HCCA. By 48 hours, the global models depict the cyclone as embedded within a baroclinic zone over the mid-latitudes of the Atlantic. Therefore, the official forecast shows Gabrielle becoming extratropical by that time. By 96 hours, the system should become absorbed by a large low pressure system at high latitudes. The initial motion is northward, or 360/13 kt. The track forecast philosophy is basically unchanged. Over the next 1 to 2 days, Gabrielle should turn northeastward and accelerate as it moves around the northwestern periphery of a mid-level high centered near the Azores. Later on, the cyclone should accelerate further within the mid-latitude west-southwesterly flow. The official forecast is very close to the previous NHC track, and close to the corrected consensus prediction. Based on the ASCAT data, the 34-kt wind radii over the southern semicircle of the circulation were increased a bit. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 36.5N 49.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 38.6N 47.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 41.1N 44.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 43.6N 40.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 46.5N 35.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 12/0000Z 54.5N 18.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Storm Gabrielle (AT3/AL082019)
2019-09-09 04:31:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GABRIELLE MOVING NORTHWARD... ...EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE... As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Sep 8 the center of Gabrielle was located near 36.5, -49.3 with movement N at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Public Advisory Number 23
2019-09-09 04:31:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 08 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 090231 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 08 2019 ...GABRIELLE MOVING NORTHWARD... ...EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.5N 49.3W ABOUT 1225 MI...1975 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle was located near latitude 36.5 North, longitude 49.3 West. Gabrielle is moving toward the north near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected by Monday night, and a northeastward motion at an even faster forward speed is expected on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through Monday morning, but a weakening trend is likely to begin by Monday evening. Gabrielle is expected to become an extratropical low by Tuesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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