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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Graphics
2019-09-09 10:35:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Sep 2019 08:35:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Sep 2019 09:24:38 GMT
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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Forecast Discussion Number 24
2019-09-09 10:34:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 09 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 090834 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019 500 AM AST Mon Sep 09 2019 Deep convection associated with Gabrielle has become somewhat less organized overnight with the center located near the northeastern portion of the coldest cloud tops. There is still banding present over the southern and southwestern portions of the circulation but it has become fragmented. Gabrielle has likely peaked in intensity, and the latest satellite estimates and earlier ASCAT data support an initial intensity of 50 kt for this advisory. Little change in intensity is expected today while Gabrielle remains over warm water and within a moderate shear environment. By tonight, decreasing SSTs and increasing southerly shear should begin to cause gradual weakening. Shortly after that time, the global models indicate Gabrielle will become embedded within a baroclinic zone and become extratropical. The extratropical low is predicted to slowly weaken and be absorbed by a larger low pressure system over the northeastern Atlantic in a little more than 3 days. Gabrielle has turned north-northeastward with an initial motion estimate of 015/14 kt. Gabrielle should turn northeastward today and begin to accelerate ahead of a broad mid-level trough approaching the central Atlantic. Once the cyclone is fully embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies, an additional acceleration toward the northeast is expected. There is good agreement among the dynamical models, and the updated NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory. The official forecast track remains between the TVCA and HCCA consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 37.7N 48.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 39.7N 46.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 42.2N 42.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 44.8N 38.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 11/0600Z 48.1N 31.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 12/0600Z 55.8N 12.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24
2019-09-09 10:34:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 09 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 090834 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082019 0900 UTC MON SEP 09 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Tropical Storm Gabrielle (AT3/AL082019)
2019-09-09 10:34:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GABRIELLE TURNS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE... As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Sep 9 the center of Gabrielle was located near 37.7, -48.5 with movement NNE at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Public Advisory Number 24
2019-09-09 10:34:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 09 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 090834 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019 500 AM AST Mon Sep 09 2019 ...GABRIELLE TURNS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.7N 48.5W ABOUT 1170 MI...1885 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle was located near latitude 37.7 North, longitude 48.5 West. Gabrielle is moving toward the north-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected today, and a northeastward motion at an even faster forward speed is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, but a weakening trend is likely to begin tonight. Gabrielle is expected to become an extratropical low by Tuesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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