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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Graphics
2019-09-08 10:34:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 08 Sep 2019 08:34:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 08 Sep 2019 09:31:33 GMT
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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Forecast Discussion Number 20
2019-09-08 10:33:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 08 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 080832 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019 500 AM AST Sun Sep 08 2019 Gabrielle has become a little better organized overnight. The storm now has well-defined curved bands, especially to the south of the center, with some evidence of an inner core trying to form. The initial intensity is nudged upward to 50 kt, which is between the Dvorak classification from TAFB and the latest satellite consensus estimate from the CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin. Earlier ASCAT data revealed that Gabrielle is a compact storm with its tropical-storm-force winds only extending out to about 60 n mi from the center. The tropical storm is gradually turning to the right, with the initial motion estimated to be northwestward at 11 kt. The system is located near the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge centered near the Azores, and it should be moving around the western side of that ridge later today and tonight. This should cause Gabrielle to turn northward with some increase in forward speed during that time. An even faster northeastward motion is expected on Monday and Tuesday as Gabrielle, or its post-tropical remnants, become embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The track models are in fairly good agreement, and only minor adjustments were made to the previous forecast. Gabrielle could strengthen a little more today while it remains over warm water and in generally favorable atmospheric conditions. However, the combined influences of increasing southerly shear and cooler waters should end the chances of intensification on Monday. The global models are in agreement that Gabrielle should become extratropical when it merges with a cold front that is associated with Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian in a little more than 2 days. The extratropical low is expected to gradually weaken and ultimately dissipate in 4 to 5 days. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one and in line with the majority of the intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 32.7N 48.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 34.3N 49.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 37.1N 48.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 40.1N 45.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 42.7N 41.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 48.1N 28.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 12/0600Z 56.0N 10.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Storm Gabrielle (AT3/AL082019)
2019-09-08 10:32:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GABRIELLE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Sep 8 the center of Gabrielle was located near 32.7, -48.6 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Public Advisory Number 20
2019-09-08 10:32:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 08 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 080832 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019 500 AM AST Sun Sep 08 2019 ...GABRIELLE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.7N 48.6W ABOUT 1265 MI...2040 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle was located near latitude 32.7 North, longitude 48.6 West. Gabrielle is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). The storm is forecast to turn northward over the central Atlantic later today and then accelerate northeastward into the north Atlantic Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast today. Gabrielle is forecast to become an extratropical low and begin weakening on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2019-09-08 10:32:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 08 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 080832 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082019 0900 UTC SUN SEP 08 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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