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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Graphics
2019-09-10 04:34:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 10 Sep 2019 02:34:04 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 10 Sep 2019 02:34:04 GMT
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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Forecast Discussion Number 27
2019-09-10 04:33:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 09 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 100233 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 09 2019 Gabrielle's convection has waned considerably since the previous advisory, and the cloud pattern now has a disheveled appearance that is becoming more reminiscent of an extratropical low pressure system. However, a recent 2246Z ASCAT-A scatterometer pass indicated that the tropical storm has maintained a very robust surface wind field, with peak winds still at 45 kt and a radius of maximum winds of 45-50 nmi. The initial motion estimate is 055/21 kt, based primarily on passive microwave and scatterometer satellite fixes. Gabrielle is now well embedded in the high-latitude westerlies, and an additional increase in forward speed toward the northeast or east-northeast is expected over the next 2 days. By 72 hours, Gabrielle is forecast to dissipate near the northern British Isles. Gabrielle is currently located over sub-25 deg C sea-surface temperatures and within a strong vertical wind shear regime of near 30 kt. With much colder water and stronger southwesterly shear ahead of the cyclone, extratropical transition now appears likely to occur within the next 12 hours. The intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and is a blend of the statistical SHIPS intensity models, and the GFS and ECMWF dynamical model wind fields. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 42.1N 43.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 44.0N 39.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 11/0000Z 46.6N 34.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 11/1200Z 50.1N 27.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 12/0000Z 54.0N 16.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27
2019-09-10 04:32:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 10 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 100232 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082019 0300 UTC TUE SEP 10 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Summary for Tropical Storm Gabrielle (AT3/AL082019)
2019-09-10 04:32:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GABRIELLE MOVING QUICKLY OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE TUESDAY MORNING... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Sep 9 the center of Gabrielle was located near 42.1, -43.1 with movement NE at 24 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Public Advisory Number 27
2019-09-10 04:32:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 09 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 100232 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 09 2019 ...GABRIELLE MOVING QUICKLY OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE TUESDAY MORNING... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...42.1N 43.1W ABOUT 895 MI...1440 KM WNW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle was located near latitude 42.1 North, longitude 43.1 West. Gabrielle is moving toward the northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h), and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast tonight and early Monday, but a weakening trend is likely to begin by early Tuesday. Gabrielle is expected to become an extratropical low Tuesday morning and dissipate over the far North Atlantic near the northern British Isles on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center based on recent satellite-derived wind data. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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