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Home › isaias

 

Tag: isaias

Hurricane Isaias Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics

2020-08-04 05:23:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Tue, 04 Aug 2020 03:23:52 GMT

Tags: graphics storm hurricane surge

Hurricane Isaias Forecast Discussion Number 28

2020-08-04 05:00:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 03 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 040300 TCDAT4 Hurricane Isaias Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 03 2020 NWS Doppler radar data and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Isaias re-intensified to a hurricane despite a less than impressive appearance in satellite imagery. The aircraft reported 117 kt winds at 700 mb to the east of the center, but these were not mixed to the surface by the weak convection in that area, as the maximum SFMR winds were 75 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is raised to 75 kt. The hurricane is moving 020/19, and a faster forward speed is expected as the system moves farther into the mid-latitude southwesterly flow. This should bring the center onshore in southern North Carolina shortly, followed by a track through the mid-Atlantic and western New England states Tuesday and Tuesday night and into southeastern Canada early Wednesday. Interaction with a strong jet stream suggests that Isaias should weaken more slowly than normal as it moves through the eastern United States, and this should produce very strong wind gusts along the mid-Atlantic coast tomorrow. As a result, the gust factors at 24-48 h have been increased above the standard 20 percent in the Forecast/Advisory (TCMAT4). The cyclone is forecast to be absorbed by a larger extratropical low over Canada in about 72 h. Key Messages: 1. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along portions of the immediate coastline and adjacent waterways of northeastern South Carolina and the North Carolina coast, including portions of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 2. Hurricane conditions are spreading into the southern portion of the hurricane Warning area and should spread northward through tonight and early tomorrow morning. 3. Isaias is expected to bring widespread sustained tropical storm force winds and wind gusts to hurricane force to the mid-Atlantic coast, including portions of the Chesapeake Bay region, later tonight and on Tuesday, which could cause tree damage and power outages. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread across New England late Tuesday into early Wednesday. 4. Heavy rainfall along the East Coast near the path of Isaias will result in flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant in the eastern Carolinas, mid-Atlantic and northeast through Wednesday. Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic. Quick- responding rivers in the northeast will also be susceptible to minor river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 33.8N 78.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 37.0N 76.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 24H 05/0000Z 42.0N 73.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 36H 05/1200Z 46.8N 70.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 06/0000Z 50.8N 68.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 06/1200Z 52.9N 66.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Tags: number discussion forecast hurricane

Hurricane Isaias Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map

2020-08-04 04:52:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Tue, 04 Aug 2020 02:52:28 GMT

Tags: map storm hurricane surge

Hurricane Isaias Graphics

2020-08-04 04:50:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 04 Aug 2020 02:50:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 04 Aug 2020 03:24:57 GMT

Tags: graphics hurricane hurricane graphics graphics hurricane

Hurricane Isaias Wind Speed Probabilities Number 28

2020-08-04 04:49:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 04 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 040249 PWSAT4 HURRICANE ISAIAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 0300 UTC TUE AUG 04 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAIAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HALIFAX NS 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) YARMOUTH NS 34 X 2( 2) 19(21) 1(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) MONCTON NB 34 X 1( 1) 19(20) 3(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) ST JOHN NB 34 X 2( 2) 25(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) EASTPORT ME 34 X 2( 2) 34(36) 2(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X 4( 4) 44(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) AUGUSTA ME 34 X 8( 8) 54(62) 1(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) PORTLAND ME 34 X 20(20) 48(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) CONCORD NH 34 X 50(50) 26(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) CONCORD NH 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X 38(38) 34(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) WORCESTER MA 34 X 71(71) 10(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) WORCESTER MA 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X 82(82) 2(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) SPRINGFIELD MA 50 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SPRINGFIELD MA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BOSTON MA 34 X 54(54) 18(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) HYANNIS MA 34 X 40(40) 13(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) NANTUCKET MA 34 X 33(33) 10(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X 64(64) 8(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 1 86(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) BRIDGEPORT CT 50 X 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) BRIDGEPORT CT 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X 86(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) NEW HAVEN CT 50 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEW HAVEN CT 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HARTFORD CT 34 X 83(83) 2(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) HARTFORD CT 50 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HARTFORD CT 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NEW LONDON CT 34 X 78(78) 2(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) ALBANY NY 34 X 69(69) 3(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) ALBANY NY 50 X 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ALBANY NY 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X 82(82) 1(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) POUGHKEEPSIE 50 X 12(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) POUGHKEEPSIE 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MONTAUK POINT 34 X 73(73) 2(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) ISLIP NY 34 1 87(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) ISLIP NY 50 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLIP NY 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 1 90(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) NYC JFK AIRPRT 50 X 18(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) NYC JFK AIRPRT 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 1 89(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) NYC CNTRL PARK 50 X 20(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) NYC CNTRL PARK 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEWARK NJ 34 1 89(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) NEWARK NJ 50 X 20(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) NEWARK NJ 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 1 87(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) TRENTON NJ 50 X 20(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) TRENTON NJ 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NWS EARLE NJ 34 1 91(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) NWS EARLE NJ 50 X 21(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) NWS EARLE NJ 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ALLENTOWN PA 34 1 76(77) X(77) X(77) 1(78) X(78) X(78) ALLENTOWN PA 50 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PHILADELPHIA 34 1 87(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) PHILADELPHIA 50 X 22(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) PHILADELPHIA 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ATLANTIC CITY 34 1 93(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) ATLANTIC CITY 50 X 29(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) ATLANTIC CITY 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BALTIMORE MD 34 2 69(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) BALTIMORE MD 50 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DOVER DE 34 3 90(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) DOVER DE 50 X 33(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) DOVER DE 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 5 76(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) ANNAPOLIS MD 50 X 12(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) WASHINGTON DC 34 6 56(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) WASHINGTON DC 50 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 7 90(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X 42(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) CAPE HENLOPEN 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 23 75(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) OCEAN CITY MD 50 2 42(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PAX RIVER NAS 34 55 38(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) PAX RIVER NAS 50 5 26(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) PAX RIVER NAS 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) WALLOPS CDA 34 66 33(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) WALLOPS CDA 50 8 46(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) WALLOPS CDA 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 4 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) RICHMOND VA 34 82 5(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) RICHMOND VA 50 27 2(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) DANVILLE VA 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK NAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NORFOLK NAS 50 75 2(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) NORFOLK NAS 64 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK VA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NORFOLK VA 50 75 3(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) NORFOLK VA 64 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 98 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) OCEANA NAS VA 50 70 3(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) OCEANA NAS VA 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ELIZABETH CTY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ELIZABETH CTY 50 71 X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) RALEIGH NC 34 38 X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) RALEIGH NC 50 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ROCKY MT NC 34 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) ROCKY MT NC 50 78 X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) ROCKY MT NC 64 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 54 X(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) FAYETTEVILLE 34 90 X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) FAYETTEVILLE 50 20 X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) CHERRY PT NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CHERRY PT NC 50 75 X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) NEW RIVER NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW RIVER NC 50 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) NEW RIVER NC 64 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MOREHEAD CITY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MOREHEAD CITY 50 28 X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) SURF CITY NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SURF CITY NC 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SURF CITY NC 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) WILMINGTON NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) WILMINGTON NC 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) WILMINGTON NC 64 23 X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) BALD HEAD ISL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BALD HEAD ISL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BALD HEAD ISL 64 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FLORENCE SC 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LITTLE RIVER 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LITTLE RIVER 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LITTLE RIVER 64 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MYRTLE BEACH 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MYRTLE BEACH 64 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GEORGETOWN SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GEORGETOWN SC 50 70 X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) CHARLESTON SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Tags: number speed wind hurricane

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