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Hurricane Sam Forecast Discussion Number 24
2021-09-28 16:33:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 28 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 281433 TCDAT3 Hurricane Sam Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 28 2021 Satellite images indicate that Sam has been generally steady in strength during the past several hours, and it remains a powerful category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The storm has a well-defined eye, and the convective pattern surrounding the center is fairly symmetric. A 1043 UTC SSMIS pass showed a closed and symmetric eyewall, with no indication of a concentric eyewall. The latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB were 5.5/102 kt and the CIMSS automated technique is currently 6.2/120 kt. Based on these satellite estimates and the overnight reconnaissance data, the initial intensity is held at 115 kt. Another Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Sam this afternoon. The major hurricane is moving slowly northwestward, with the initial motion estimated to be 305/7 kt. A mid-level ridge situated to the north-northeast of Sam is expected to shift eastward as a deep-layer trough digs southeastward over the western Atlantic. This change in the large-scale pattern should cause Sam to speed up and gradually turn toward the north in 2 or 3 days and then to the northeast in 4 to 5 days. The models are in fairly good agreement, and the new forecast track is essentially an update of the previous one. Based on the forecast, Sam should pass well east of the northern Leeward Island through Wednesday and east of Bermuda Friday night and Saturday. Sam is expected to remain in favorable environmental conditions for it to maintain its intensity, or perhaps strengthen slightly, during the next day or two. However, after that time, a gradual increase in southerly shear should promote a slow weakening trend, and Sam will likely be beginning its transition to an extratropical cyclone toward the end of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast is also an update of the previous one and in line with the various consensus aids. Sam is expected to remain a major hurricane during the next several days. The initial wind radii have been adjusted based on a 1114 UTC ASCAT-A pass. Key Messages: 1. Large swells generated by Sam are affecting the Leeward Islands and will spread to portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and Bermuda by Thursday or Friday. Significant swells will likely reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada by the weekend. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the advice of lifeguards and local officials through the upcoming weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 17.5N 54.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 18.2N 55.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 19.2N 56.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 20.5N 58.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 22.0N 59.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 01/0000Z 24.0N 60.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 01/1200Z 26.6N 61.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 02/1200Z 32.5N 59.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 03/1200Z 39.2N 54.8W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Sam Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24
2021-09-28 16:33:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 28 2021 723 FONT13 KNHC 281433 PWSAT3 HURRICANE SAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 1500 UTC TUE SEP 28 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SAM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 1(18) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Hurricane Sam (AT3/AL182021)
2021-09-28 16:32:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SAM REMAINS A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Tue Sep 28 the center of Sam was located near 17.5, -54.3 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 952 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.
Hurricane Sam Public Advisory Number 24
2021-09-28 16:32:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 28 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 281432 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 28 2021 ...SAM REMAINS A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 54.3W ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 54.3 West. Sam is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this motion with an increase in forward is expected during the next couple of days. A turn toward the north is forecast to occur by Friday. On the forecast track, Sam will pass well to the east of the northern Leeward Islands through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next couple of days, but Sam is forecast to remain a major hurricane through late this week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the Lesser Antilles during the next several days. Swells are expected to reach Bermuda and the Bahamas in a couple of days, and then spread to the United States east coast late this week. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 24
2021-09-28 16:32:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 28 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 281432 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 1500 UTC TUE SEP 28 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 54.3W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......110NE 120SE 90SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 54.3W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 54.0W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 18.2N 55.1W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 19.2N 56.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 20.5N 58.1W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.0N 59.6W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 24.0N 60.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 26.6N 61.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 32.5N 59.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 39.2N 54.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 54.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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