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Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 23
2021-09-28 10:41:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 28 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 280841 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 0900 UTC TUE SEP 28 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 53.9W AT 28/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 953 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 53.9W AT 28/0900Z AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 53.6W FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.9N 54.7W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 18.8N 55.9W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 19.9N 57.4W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 21.3N 59.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 23.2N 60.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 25.6N 61.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 31.4N 60.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 39.0N 56.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 53.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
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Hurricane Sam Graphics
2021-09-28 04:34:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 28 Sep 2021 02:34:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 28 Sep 2021 02:34:53 GMT
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Hurricane Sam Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
2021-09-28 04:33:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 28 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 280233 PWSAT3 HURRICANE SAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 0300 UTC TUE SEP 28 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SAM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 9(23) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Summary for Hurricane Sam (AT3/AL182021)
2021-09-28 04:32:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SAM EXPECTED TO REMAIN A POWERFUL HURRICANE FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Sep 27 the center of Sam was located near 16.8, -53.2 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 956 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.
Hurricane Sam Public Advisory Number 22
2021-09-28 04:32:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 27 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 280232 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 27 2021 ...SAM EXPECTED TO REMAIN A POWERFUL HURRICANE FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 53.2W ABOUT 660 MI...1060 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 53.2 West. Sam is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days, with an increase in forward speed beginning on Thursday. A turn to the north is expected by Friday. On the forecast track, Sam will pass well to the northeast of the northern Leeward Islands Wednesday and Thursday. Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The hurricane could strengthen some overnight, and Sam is anticipated to be a category 3 or 4 hurricane for the next several days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure from NOAA aircraft data is 956 mb (28.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the Lesser Antilles for the next several days. Swells are expected to reach Bermuda and the Bahamas mid-to-late week, and then spread to the United States east coast late this week. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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