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Hurricane Sam Graphics
2021-09-28 10:46:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 28 Sep 2021 08:46:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 28 Sep 2021 09:22:55 GMT
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Hurricane Sam Forecast Discussion Number 23
2021-09-28 10:44:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Sep 28 2021 053 WTNT43 KNHC 280844 TCDAT3 Hurricane Sam Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 AM AST Tue Sep 28 2021 The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters that investigated Sam early this morning found evidence that the hurricane has strengthened. Peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 126 kt were reported in the northeastern quadrant, which after the standard adjustment would support an intensity of 110-115 kt. Satellite data also indicate that Sam's structure has improved overnight. Sam's inner core appears to have consolidated into a single, primary eyewall in recent GMI and AMSR2 microwave imagery, and the latest GOES-16 infrared imagery shows a colder ring of convective cloud tops developing around the eye of Sam. This has brought the latest UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON estimates up to around 115 kt. Based on the flight-level wind data and ongoing satellite trends, the initial intensity is raised to 115 kt for this advisory. The minimum central pressure of 953 mb is based on a center dropsonde of 954 mb with 12-kt surface winds. In the short-term, internal dynamic processes that are difficult to predict could cause some fluctuations in Sam's intensity. If Sam's eyewall is able to contract today, some additional strengthening could occur, and this possibility is reflected in the latest NHC intensity forecast. Thereafter, the warm sea-surface temperatures and weak to moderate vertical wind shear along Sam's forecast track suggest it should remain a major hurricane for the next several days. Thus, the NHC forecast only shows gradual weakening through 72-96 h, in agreement with the consensus aids IVCN and HCCA. By days 4-5, increasing southerly wind shear along with decreasing SSTs should increase Sam's rate of weakening as it recurves deeper into the mid-latitudes. Aircraft and microwave data indicate that Sam is slightly tilted in the vertical, with the low-level center displaced just a bit to the south of the mid-level eye. Based on recent aircraft fixes, Sam's initial motion is northwestward, or 310/8 kt. This motion is expected to continue for the next few days as Sam moves around the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge. A mid- to upper-level trough is forecast to dig southward over the western Atlantic later this week, which should steer Sam toward the north by Friday. Then, Sam is expected to accelerate north-northeastward within the deep-layer southerly flow ahead of the trough this weekend. The official NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one, with just a slight adjustment to the left based on the latest track guidance consensus aids. The along-track spread in the guidance noticeably increases as Sam recurves over the western Atlantic, with the ECMWF much slower than the GFS. Once again, the NHC forecast trends closer to the faster GFS solution at longer ranges, given its better overall performance this season. Key Messages: 1. Large swells generated by Sam are affecting the Leeward Islands and will spread to portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and Bermuda by Thursday or Friday. Significant swells will likely reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada by the weekend. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the advice of lifeguards and local officials through the upcoming weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 17.2N 53.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 17.9N 54.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 18.8N 55.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 19.9N 57.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 30/0600Z 21.3N 59.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 30/1800Z 23.2N 60.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 01/0600Z 25.6N 61.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 02/0600Z 31.4N 60.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 03/0600Z 39.0N 56.0W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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Summary for Hurricane Sam (AT3/AL182021)
2021-09-28 10:42:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND SAM HAS STRENGTHENED... As of 5:00 AM AST Tue Sep 28 the center of Sam was located near 17.2, -53.9 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 953 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.
Hurricane Sam Public Advisory Number 23
2021-09-28 10:42:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Sep 28 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 280842 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 AM AST Tue Sep 28 2021 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND SAM HAS STRENGTHENED... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 53.9W ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 53.9 West. Sam is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days, with an increase in forward speed beginning on Thursday. A turn toward the north is expected by Friday. On the forecast track, Sam will pass well to the northeast of the northern Leeward Islands on Wednesday and Thursday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next couple of days, but Sam is forecast to remain a major hurricane through late this week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data from the aircraft is 953 mb (28.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the Lesser Antilles for the next several days. Swells are expected to reach Bermuda and the Bahamas in a couple of days, and then spread to the United States east coast late this week. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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Hurricane Sam Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
2021-09-28 10:42:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 28 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 280842 PWSAT3 HURRICANE SAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 0900 UTC TUE SEP 28 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SAM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 3(23) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER REINHART
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