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Post-Tropical Cyclone Fausto Graphics
2020-08-17 16:52:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 17 Aug 2020 14:52:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 17 Aug 2020 14:52:16 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Fausto Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-08-17 16:51:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Aug 17 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 171451 TCDEP1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Fausto Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112020 800 AM PDT Mon Aug 17 2020 Fausto has been absent of deep convection for about 12 hours, and with the system over SSTs below 23 degrees Celsius, it is unlikely organized deep convection will return. Therefore, Fausto has become a remnant low, and this will be the final NHC advisory on this system. The initial wind speed has been set at 25 kt, which is a blend of the TAFB Dvorak T- and CI-numbers. The low should continue to spin down over cooler waters over the next day or so, and the global models indicate it will dissipate by Wednesday morning. The initial motion estimate is now westward or 280/11 kt. The remnant low should turn west-southwestward on Tuesday while it continues to weaken and comes under the influence of the low-level trade wind flow. The track guidance remains in good agreement, and the NHC forecast is close to the multi-model consensus. This is the last NHC advisory on Fausto. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 23.4N 125.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 18/0000Z 23.8N 127.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 18/1200Z 23.8N 130.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/0000Z 23.4N 132.6W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Fausto Forecast Advisory Number 7
2020-08-17 16:51:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 17 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 171450 TCMEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FAUSTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112020 1500 UTC MON AUG 17 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 125.9W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 125.9W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 125.3W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 23.8N 127.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 23.8N 130.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 23.4N 132.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 125.9W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON FAUSTO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Fausto (EP1/EP112020)
2020-08-17 16:51:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...FAUSTO BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Mon Aug 17 the center of Fausto was located near 23.4, -125.9 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Fausto Public Advisory Number 7
2020-08-17 16:51:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Aug 17 2020 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 171450 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Fausto Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112020 800 AM PDT Mon Aug 17 2020 ...FAUSTO BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.4N 125.9W ABOUT 1015 MI...1635 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Fausto was located near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 125.9 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the west-southwest with a gradual decrease in forward speed on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected, and the remnant low is forecast to dissipate by Wednesday morning. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Brown
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