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Tropical Storm Fausto Graphics
2020-08-16 22:31:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 16 Aug 2020 20:31:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 16 Aug 2020 20:31:56 GMT
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fausto
Tropical Storm Fausto Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-08-16 22:31:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 162031 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Fausto Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112020 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020 The deep convection has decreased in coverage over the cyclone today, but the center remains underneath clouds tops of about -60 C. The initial intensity of 35 kt is supported by the latest Dvorak satellite intensity estimate from TAFB, but this may be a little generous based on late-arriving ASCAT overpass data. There is no change to the forecast intensity philosophy. Fausto has crossed the 26 C SST isotherm and will be heading towards waters cooler than 24 C by Monday morning. Therefore a weakening trend is expected to begin soon. The deep convection should decrease and the cyclone is forecast degenerate to a remnant low Monday night. Fausto has accelerated and is now moving northwestward at around 17 kt along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. As the cyclone loses its convection, it should turn west or just south of west as it becomes steered by the low-level flow. The official forecast lies in the middle of tightly clustered guidance and is little changed from the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 21.5N 121.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 23.2N 123.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 24.1N 126.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 24.3N 128.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/1800Z 23.9N 130.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 19/0600Z 23.2N 132.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Fausto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2020-08-16 22:31:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 162031 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112020 2100 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 125W 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Summary for Tropical Storm Fausto (EP1/EP112020)
2020-08-16 22:30:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...FAUSTO EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING SOON... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sun Aug 16 the center of Fausto was located near 21.5, -121.0 with movement NW at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Fausto Public Advisory Number 4
2020-08-16 22:30:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 162030 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fausto Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112020 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020 ...FAUSTO EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING SOON... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.5N 121.0W ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fausto was located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 121.0 West. Fausto is moving toward the northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this motion is expected continue through tonight. A turn to the west, with a decrease in forward speed is forecast to occur later on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast to begin tonight, and Fausto is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by Monday morning, and degenerate into a remnant low Monday night Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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