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Tropical Depression Fausto Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-08-17 04:34:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 170234 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Fausto Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112020 800 PM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020 Deep convection continues to decrease near Fausto, with only a small area remaining near and south of the center. Satellite estimates are dropping and support making Fausto a 30-kt tropical depression on this advisory, which also matches the 25-30 kt ASCAT data from earlier. The cyclone is rapidly moving over cold water, and should cease producing deep convection overnight. Thus further weakening is likely, and remnant low status is expected on Monday, with a slow decay over cold waters thereafter as shown in the global models. Fausto is moving northwestward at around 15 kt along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. The storm should turn westward tomorrow and south-of-west on Tuesday due to the orientation of the lower- to middle-level ridge. The official forecast is basically an update of the previous one, and is not far from the eastern Pacific model consensus aid, TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 23.1N 122.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 24.1N 125.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 18/0000Z 24.6N 127.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/1200Z 24.5N 129.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/0000Z 24.0N 131.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 19/1200Z 23.0N 134.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Summary for Tropical Depression Fausto (EP1/EP112020)
2020-08-17 04:33:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...FAUSTO BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sun Aug 16 the center of Fausto was located near 23.1, -122.9 with movement NW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Fausto Public Advisory Number 5
2020-08-17 04:33:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 170233 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fausto Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112020 800 PM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020 ...FAUSTO BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.1N 122.9W ABOUT 825 MI...1330 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fausto was located near latitude 23.1 North, longitude 122.9 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a gradual turn toward the west-northwest and west at a slower forward speed is anticipated over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Fausto is expected to degenerate into a remnant area of low pressure on Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Fausto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2020-08-17 04:33:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 17 2020 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 170233 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAUSTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112020 0300 UTC MON AUG 17 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAUSTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 125W 34 3 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) 25N 130W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression Fausto Forecast Advisory Number 5
2020-08-17 04:32:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 17 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 170232 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAUSTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112020 0300 UTC MON AUG 17 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 122.9W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 122.9W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 122.0W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 24.1N 125.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 24.6N 127.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 24.5N 129.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 24.0N 131.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 23.0N 134.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.1N 122.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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