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Tropical Storm Fausto Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-08-16 22:30:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 162030 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112020 2100 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 121.0W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 121.0W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 120.5W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 23.2N 123.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 24.1N 126.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 24.3N 128.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 23.9N 130.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 23.2N 132.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 121.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Fausto Graphics
2020-08-16 16:49:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 16 Aug 2020 14:49:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 16 Aug 2020 14:49:19 GMT
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Tropical Storm Fausto Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-08-16 16:45:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020 708 WTPZ41 KNHC 161444 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Fausto Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112020 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020 Deep convection with cloud tops at around -70 C has persisted over the center of the cyclone for the past several hours. All available Dvorak T-numbers have been on the increase, and an initial intensity of 35 kt is supported by the latest Dvorak estimates from both SAB and TAFB. This makes the cyclone the sixth tropical storm of the 2020 Eastern Pacific hurricane season. Fausto is crossing the 26 C SST isotherm and is expected to reach waters cooler than 24 C by Monday morning. Therefore it is likely that we are witnessing Fausto's peak intensity now. With the cooler waters, the convection should gradually decrease and the cyclone is expected to become a remnant low in about 2 days. The intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and is in good agreement with the intensity consensus aids. Fausto has increased its forward speed a bit and is now moving northwestward at around 13 kt. A slightly faster forward speed and a gradual turn to the west-northwest is expected through tonight along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. As the cyclone loses its convection, it should turn westward or just south of westward as it becomes steered by the low-level flow. The official forecast lies in the middle of tightly clustered guidance and is little changed from the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 20.7N 119.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 22.3N 121.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 23.6N 124.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 24.1N 127.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 24.0N 129.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 19/0000Z 23.6N 131.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/1200Z 22.9N 133.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Fausto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2020-08-16 16:45:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 161444 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112020 1500 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 125W 34 X 8( 8) 6(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Summary for Tropical Storm Fausto (EP1/EP112020)
2020-08-16 16:44:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO... ...NOT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ANY FURTHER... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 the center of Fausto was located near 20.7, -119.6 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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