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Post-Tropical Cyclone ARTHUR Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19

2014-07-05 16:58:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 05 2014 000 FONT11 KNHC 051458 PWSAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 1500 UTC SAT JUL 05 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 45.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ILE ST PIERRE 34 1 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BURGEO NFLD 34 3 16(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) PTX BASQUES 34 8 32(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) PTX BASQUES 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 35 1(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) SYDNEY NS 34 21 8(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) SABLE ISLAND 34 7 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HALIFAX NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) YARMOUTH NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) YARMOUTH NS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MONCTON NB 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MONCTON NB 50 22 X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) ST JOHN NB 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ST JOHN NB 50 18 X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) EASTPORT ME 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) EASTPORT ME 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BAR HARBOR ME 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone ARTHUR (AT1/AL012014)

2014-07-05 16:58:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON ARTHUR... ...CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE CONTINUES TO ISSUE STATEMENTS ON THIS SYSTEM... As of 11:00 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 the center of ARTHUR was located near 45.0, -65.5 with movement NE at 24 mph. The minimum central pressure was 983 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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Post-Tropical Cyclone ARTHUR Public Advisory Number 19

2014-07-05 16:58:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM EDT SAT JUL 05 2014 000 WTNT31 KNHC 051457 TCPAT1 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 1100 AM EDT SAT JUL 05 2014 ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH TONIGHT... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON ARTHUR... ...CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE CONTINUES TO ISSUE STATEMENTS ON THIS SYSTEM... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...45.0N 65.5W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM WNW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING CAPE BRETON ISLAND * PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND * NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER TO GRAND-ANSE IN ADDITION...HIGH WIND WARNINGS...FOR WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH... ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MAINE. FOR FUTURE INFORMATION ON WARNINGS IN CANADA PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE AT... WEATHER.GC.CA/HURRICANE/INDEX_E.HTML ...IN ALL LOWER CASE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 45.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.5 WEST. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH ...39 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARTHUR WILL BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND OVER THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GALE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM FROM THE CENTER. A WIND GUST TO 61 MPH...98 KM/H HAS RECENTLY BEEN REPORTED AT YARMOUNTH NOVA SCOTIA. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER NOVA SCOTIA...SOUTHEASTERN NEW BRUNSWICK...AND PORTIONS OF NEWFOUNDLAND DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IN ADDITION...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MAINE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. STORM SURGE...COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN CANADA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR EASTERN MAINE...WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA...AND NEW BRUNSWICK...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE INFORMATION... PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...INCLUDING WARNINGS...CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT: WEATHER.GC.CA/HURRICANE/INDEX_E.HTML ...IN ALL LOWER CASE. STATEMENTS ON THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ARE ALSO BEING ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA UNDER WMO HEADER WOCN31 CWHX AND IN FRENCH AT WOCN41 CWHX. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH

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Post-Tropical Cyclone ARTHUR Forecast Advisory Number 19

2014-07-05 16:55:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 05 2014 000 WTNT21 KNHC 051455 TCMAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 1500 UTC SAT JUL 05 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING CAPE BRETON ISLAND * PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND * NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER TO GRAND-ANSE IN ADDITION...HIGH WIND WARNINGS...FOR WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH... ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MAINE. FOR FUTURE INFORMATION ON WARNINGS IN CANADA PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE AT... WEATHER.GC.CA/HURRICANE/INDEX_E.HTML ...IN ALL LOWER CASE. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.0N 65.5W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 21 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 60SE 90SW 0NW. 34 KT.......140NE 180SE 140SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 480SE 360SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.0N 65.5W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 44.5N 66.3W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 47.0N 63.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 210SE 210SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 49.0N 60.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 240SE 240SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 52.0N 56.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 300SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 56.0N 53.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 300SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 60.5N 54.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 60.5N 52.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 45.0N 65.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON ARTHUR. FOR FUTURE INFORMATION ON WARNINGS IN CANADA PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE AT... WEATHER.GC.CA/HURRICANE/INDEX_E.HTML ...IN ALL LOWER CASE. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. STATEMENTS ON THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ARE ALSO BEING ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE UNDER WMO HEADER WOCN31 CWHX AND IN FRENCH AT WOCN41 CWHX. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH

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