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Tropical Storm ARTHUR Public Advisory Number 18

2014-07-05 10:44:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM EDT SAT JUL 05 2014 000 WTNT31 KNHC 050844 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 500 AM EDT SAT JUL 05 2014 ...ARTHUR LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS... ...WEATHER RAPIDLY DETERIORATING OVER WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...43.1N 66.9W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SW OF YARMOUTH NOVA SCOTIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NANTUCKET...AND FOR CAPE COD FROM PROVINCETOWN TO WOODS HOLE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING CAPE BRETON ISLAND * PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND * NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER TO GRAND-ANSE IN ADDITION...HIGH WIND WARNINGS...FOR WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH... ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MAINE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 43.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.9 WEST. ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARTHUR WILL BE CROSSING NEAR OR OVER WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND OVER THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM FROM THE CENTER. YARTMOUTH IN WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA RECENTLY REPORT A WIND GUST TO 46 MPH...74 KM/H. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING AREA IN CANADA SOON AND SPREAD NORTHWARD LATER TODAY. IN ADDITION... WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MAINE TODAY...BEHIND A COLD FRONT OVERTAKING THE CIRCULATION OF ARTHUR. STORM SURGE...COASTAL FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE ALONG CAPE COD TODAY. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR EASTERN MAINE...WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA...AND NEW BRUNSWICK...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. SWELLS ARE ALSO AFFECTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Tropical Storm ARTHUR Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18

2014-07-05 10:44:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 05 2014 000 FONT11 KNHC 050844 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 0900 UTC SAT JUL 05 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 43.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X 4( 4) 7(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) BURGEO NFLD 34 X 8( 8) 30(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PTX BASQUES 34 1 27(28) 33(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) PTX BASQUES 50 X 3( 3) 12(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) EDDY POINT NS 34 17 42(59) 1(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) EDDY POINT NS 50 X 12(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) SYDNEY NS 34 4 45(49) 3(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) SYDNEY NS 50 X 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SABLE ISLAND 34 4 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HALIFAX NS 34 89 1(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) HALIFAX NS 50 39 2(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) HALIFAX NS 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) YARMOUTH NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) YARMOUTH NS 50 80 X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) YARMOUTH NS 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MONCTON NB 34 82 4(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) MONCTON NB 50 17 7(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) MONCTON NB 64 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST JOHN NB 34 81 X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) ST JOHN NB 50 17 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) ST JOHN NB 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) EASTPORT ME 34 40 X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) BAR HARBOR ME 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Tropical Storm ARTHUR Forecast Advisory Number 18

2014-07-05 10:44:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 05 2014 000 WTNT21 KNHC 050843 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 0900 UTC SAT JUL 05 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NANTUCKET...AND FOR CAPE COD FROM PROVINCETOWN TO WOODS HOLE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING CAPE BRETON ISLAND * PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND * NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER TO GRAND-ANSE IN ADDITION...HIGH WIND WARNINGS...FOR WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH... ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MAINE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.1N 66.9W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 100SE 70SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 140SE 100SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 300SE 420SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.1N 66.9W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 42.3N 67.6W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 45.5N 64.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 90SE 120SW 0NW. 34 KT...240NE 180SE 180SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 47.0N 61.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 210SE 210SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 49.5N 57.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 180SE 180SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 52.5N 54.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 240SE 180SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 60.0N 51.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...180NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 58.5N 50.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 62.1N 43.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.1N 66.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Hurricane ARTHUR Graphics

2014-07-05 08:32:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2014 05:51:37 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2014 03:05:48 GMT

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Summary for Hurricane ARTHUR (AT1/AL012014)

2014-07-05 07:50:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...ARTHUR RACING TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA... As of 2:00 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 the center of ARTHUR was located near 42.3, -67.6 with movement NE at 31 mph. The minimum central pressure was 981 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

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