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Hurricane ARTHUR Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17

2014-07-05 04:37:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 05 2014 000 FONT11 KNHC 050236 PWSAT1 HURRICANE ARTHUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 0300 UTC SAT JUL 05 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BURGEO NFLD 34 X 4( 4) 22(26) 2(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PTX BASQUES 34 X 11(11) 40(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) EDDY POINT NS 34 4 40(44) 3(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) EDDY POINT NS 50 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SYDNEY NS 34 2 23(25) 13(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) SYDNEY NS 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SABLE ISLAND 34 3 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) HALIFAX NS 34 57 34(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) HALIFAX NS 50 2 41(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) HALIFAX NS 64 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) YARMOUTH NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) YARMOUTH NS 50 79 3(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) YARMOUTH NS 64 26 2(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) MONCTON NB 34 16 61(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) MONCTON NB 50 1 24(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) MONCTON NB 64 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST JOHN NB 34 66 19(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) ST JOHN NB 50 5 22(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) ST JOHN NB 64 2 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) EASTPORT ME 34 56 7(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) EASTPORT ME 50 7 4(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) EASTPORT ME 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BAR HARBOR ME 34 22 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) AUGUSTA ME 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORTLAND ME 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BOSTON MA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 14 X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) NANTUCKET MA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Hurricane ARTHUR Forecast Advisory Number 17

2014-07-05 04:36:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 05 2014 000 WTNT21 KNHC 050236 TCMAT1 HURRICANE ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 0300 UTC SAT JUL 05 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NANTUCKET * CAPE COD FROM PROVINCETOWN TO WOODS HOLE * NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING CAPE BRETON ISLAND * PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND * NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER TO GRAND-ANSE IN ADDITION...HIGH WIND WARNINGS...FOR WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH... ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MAINE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.2N 68.7W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 27 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 45NE 60SE 45SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 100SE 70SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 140SE 100SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 240SE 300SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.2N 68.7W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.3N 69.6W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 44.0N 66.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 100SE 70SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 160SE 140SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 46.5N 63.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 80SE 80SW 0NW. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 160SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 48.5N 59.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...160NE 220SE 160SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 51.5N 55.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...180NE 240SE 160SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 58.0N 51.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...270NE 270SE 160SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 60.0N 49.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 61.5N 44.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.2N 68.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Hurricane ARTHUR Graphics

2014-07-05 01:39:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 04 Jul 2014 23:39:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 04 Jul 2014 21:05:48 GMT

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Summary for Hurricane ARTHUR (AT1/AL012014)

2014-07-05 01:36:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...ARTHUR MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD... ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED OVER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... As of 8:00 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 the center of ARTHUR was located near 40.3, -69.6 with movement NE at 28 mph. The minimum central pressure was 976 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

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Hurricane ARTHUR Public Advisory Number 16A

2014-07-05 01:36:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 PM EDT FRI JUL 04 2014 000 WTNT31 KNHC 042336 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 800 PM EDT FRI JUL 04 2014 ...ARTHUR MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD... ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED OVER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.3N 69.6W ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SSE OF CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SW OF YARMOUTH NOVA SCOTIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...45 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NANTUCKET * CAPE COD FROM PROVINCETOWN TO WOODS HOLE * NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING CAPE BRETON ISLAND * PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND * NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER TO GRAND-ANSE IN ADDITION...HIGH WIND WARNINGS...FOR WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH... ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MAINE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.6 WEST. ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 28 MPH...45 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARTHUR WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...AND BE NEAR OR OVER WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA EARLY ON SATURDAY...AND OVER THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE SATURDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SATURDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING AREA IN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING AREA IN CANADA TONIGHT AND SPREAD NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MAINE ON SATURDAY...BEHIND A COLD FRONT OVERTAKING THE CIRCULATION OF ARTHUR. STORM SURGE...COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG CAPE COD TONIGHT. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EXTREME EASTERN RHODE ISLAND...EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...COASTAL MAINE...NOVA SCOTIA...NEWFOUNDLAND...AND NEW BRUNSWICK...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER DOWNEAST MAINE AND CANADA. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. SWELLS WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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