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Hurricane ARTHUR Graphics
2014-07-05 00:35:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 04 Jul 2014 20:57:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 04 Jul 2014 21:05:48 GMT
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Hurricane ARTHUR Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2014-07-04 22:56:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 04 2014 000 FONT11 KNHC 042056 PWSAT1 HURRICANE ARTHUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 2100 UTC FRI JUL 04 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) 12(12) 30(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PTX BASQUES 34 X 1( 1) 29(30) 27(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X 12(12) 36(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SYDNEY NS 34 X 5( 5) 37(42) 6(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SABLE ISLAND 34 X 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) HALIFAX NS 34 2 50(52) 8(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) HALIFAX NS 50 X 8( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) YARMOUTH NS 34 13 82(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) YARMOUTH NS 50 X 53(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) YARMOUTH NS 64 X 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MONCTON NB 34 1 63(64) 12(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) MONCTON NB 50 X 13(13) 13(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) MONCTON NB 64 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST JOHN NB 34 2 76(78) 1(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) ST JOHN NB 50 X 24(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) ST JOHN NB 64 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) EASTPORT ME 34 3 62(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) EASTPORT ME 50 X 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) EASTPORT ME 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BAR HARBOR ME 34 4 25(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) AUGUSTA ME 34 3 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PORTLAND ME 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CONCORD NH 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BOSTON MA 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HYANNIS MA 34 71 1(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) HYANNIS MA 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NANTUCKET MA 50 28 X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) NANTUCKET MA 64 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PROVIDENCE RI 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MONTAUK POINT 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane ARTHUR Forecast Advisory Number 16
2014-07-04 22:55:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 04 2014 000 WTNT21 KNHC 042055 TCMAT1 HURRICANE ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 2100 UTC FRI JUL 04 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NON-TROPICAL HIGH WIND WARNINGS...FOR WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ...HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MAINE. FOR DETAILS PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NWS WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NANTUCKET * CAPE COD FROM PROVINCETOWN TO WOODS HOLE * NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING CAPE BRETON ISLAND * PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND * NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER TO GRAND-ANSE IN ADDITION...HIGH WIND WARNINGS...FOR WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH... ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MAINE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.4N 71.1W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 23 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 60SE 20SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 90SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT.......120NE 140SE 100SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 240SE 240SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.4N 71.1W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.4N 72.4W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 42.2N 68.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 90SE 60SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 140SE 100SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 45.3N 65.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 100SE 100SW 20NW. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 160SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 47.0N 61.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 100SE 100SW 20NW. 34 KT...160NE 220SE 160SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 49.4N 57.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...180NE 240SE 240SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 56.0N 51.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...360NE 360SE 240SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 60.0N 49.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 61.0N 42.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.4N 71.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane ARTHUR Graphics
2014-07-04 19:53:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 04 Jul 2014 17:53:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 04 Jul 2014 15:05:48 GMT
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Hurricane ARTHUR Public Advisory Number 15A
2014-07-04 19:52:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM EDT FRI JUL 04 2014 000 WTNT31 KNHC 041751 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 200 PM EDT FRI JUL 04 2014 ...ARTHUR PASSING WELL EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.5N 72.4W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SSW OF CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE COAST OF VIRGINIA AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NANTUCKET * CAPE COD FROM PROVINCETOWN TO WOODS HOLE * NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING CAPE BRETON ISLAND * PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND * NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U. S./CANADA BORDER TO GRAND-ANSE INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN COASTAL PORTIONS OF MAINE AND NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ARTHUR. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.4 WEST. ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARTHUR WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THIS AFTERNOON...PASS SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...AND BE NEAR OR OVER WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA EARLY ON SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON SATURDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB...28.82 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING AREA IN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING AREA IN CANADA TONIGHT AND SPREAD NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY. STORM SURGE...COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG CAPE COD TONIGHT. ELEVATED WATER LEVELS IN PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FROM EXTREME EASTERN RHODE ISLAND THROUGH EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND INTO COASTAL MAINE...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER DOWNEAST MAINE. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING AREAS ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND NORTHEAST COASTS OF THE UNITED STATES. SWELLS WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TONIGHT. THESE SWELL ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE INFORMATION... PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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