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Hurricane ARTHUR Graphics

2014-07-04 17:10:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 04 Jul 2014 14:51:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 04 Jul 2014 15:05:48 GMT

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Hurricane ARTHUR Forecast Discussion Number 15

2014-07-04 16:42:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM EDT FRI JUL 04 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 041442 TCDAT1 HURRICANE ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 1100 AM EDT FRI JUL 04 2014 The eye of Arthur remains evident in geostationary satellite imagery although the cloud tops surrounding the eye have warmed this morning. The U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has measured 94-kt 700 mb flight-level winds in the southeastern quadrant, but it appears that these winds are not effectively mixing down to the surface, as peak SFMR surface winds have been 68 kt. Using a blend of the these data, the initial intensity has been reduced to 80 kt. Arthur will be moving over cooler water and the shear will be significantly increasing through tonight, which should cause gradual weakening. The hurricane will also interact with a deep-layer trough and associated cold front that will be moving off the United States east coast later today. This should cause the hurricane to complete transition into an extratropical cyclone in about 24 hours. After that time, continued weakening is expected while the post-tropical cyclone moves over the North Atlantic. Arthur is moving northeastward with an initial motion of 040/21 kt. The hurricane should continue moving northeastward during the next 24 to 36 hours ahead of the aforementioned deep-layer trough. The center of the cyclone is forecast to move over Nova Scotia on Saturday and track models are in good agreement on this portion of the forecast. The track guidance become very divergent after 48 hours, with the ECMWF taking the cyclone northward and northwestward while the GFS shows an east-northeastward motion near Newfoundland. Out of continuity for the previous forecasts, the NHC track continues to follow the eastward scenario shown by the GFS and GFS ensemble mean, but it now shows a somewhat slower motion by day 5. It is possible that this portion of the track will need to be adjusted in future forecasts. Hourly position updates and two-hourly intermediate advisories have been discontinued. Three-hourly intermediate advisories will continue as long as coastal warnings remain in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 37.7N 73.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 40.2N 70.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 44.0N 66.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 06/0000Z 46.1N 63.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 06/1200Z 48.0N 59.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 07/1200Z 55.0N 52.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 08/1200Z 59.0N 46.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 09/1200Z 62.0N 35.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown

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Hurricane ARTHUR Public Advisory Number 15

2014-07-04 16:41:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM EDT FRI JUL 04 2014 000 WTNT31 KNHC 041441 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 1100 AM EDT FRI JUL 04 2014 ...CENTER OF ARTHUR EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD EARLY TONIGHT... ...ALL WARNINGS IN NORTH CAROLINA DISCONTINUED... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.7N 73.4W ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM ESE OF OCEAN CITY MARYLAND ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SW OF CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS REPLACED ALL REMAINING TROPICAL STORM WATCHES WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. ALL HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND HAS ALSO BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY * NANTUCKET * CAPE COD FROM PROVINCETOWN TO WOODS HOLE * NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING CAPE BRETON ISLAND * PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND * NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U. S./CANADA BORDER TO GRAND-ANSE INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN COASTAL PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ARTHUR. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.4 WEST. ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARTHUR WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THIS AFTERNOON...PASS SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...AND BE NEAR OR OVER WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA EARLY SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON SATURDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA IN VIRGINIA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING AREA IN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING AREA IN CANADA TONIGHT AND SPREAD NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY. STORM SURGE...COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG CAPE COD TONIGHT. ELEVATED WATER LEVELS IN PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FROM EXTREME EASTERN RHODE ISLAND THROUGH EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND INTO COASTAL MAINE...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER DOWNEAST MAINE. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING AREAS ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND NORTHEAST COASTS OF THE UNITED STATES. SWELLS WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TONIGHT. THESE SWELL ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE INFORMATION... PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Hurricane ARTHUR Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15

2014-07-04 16:41:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 04 2014 000 FONT11 KNHC 041441 PWSAT1 HURRICANE ARTHUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 1500 UTC FRI JUL 04 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 45(48) 4(52) X(52) X(52) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 54(62) 1(63) X(63) X(63) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) 21(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) EDDY POINT NS 34 X 3( 3) 35(38) 12(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SYDNEY NS 34 X 1( 1) 20(21) 34(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SABLE ISLAND 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) HALIFAX NS 34 X 31(31) 43(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) HALIFAX NS 50 X 2( 2) 20(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) YARMOUTH NS 34 1 91(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) YARMOUTH NS 50 X 56(56) 2(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) YARMOUTH NS 64 X 10(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MONCTON NB 34 X 11(11) 48(59) 1(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) MONCTON NB 50 X 1( 1) 18(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) MONCTON NB 64 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST JOHN NB 34 X 45(45) 22(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) ST JOHN NB 50 X 6( 6) 15(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) ST JOHN NB 64 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) EASTPORT ME 34 X 42(42) 9(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) EASTPORT ME 50 X 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BAR HARBOR ME 34 1 16(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) AUGUSTA ME 34 1 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PORTLAND ME 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CONCORD NH 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BOSTON MA 34 2 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HYANNIS MA 34 25 29(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) HYANNIS MA 50 1 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NANTUCKET MA 34 70 18(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) NANTUCKET MA 50 8 22(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) NANTUCKET MA 64 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PROVIDENCE RI 34 4 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HARTFORD CT 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 7 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Hurricane ARTHUR Forecast Advisory Number 15

2014-07-04 16:40:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 04 2014 000 WTNT21 KNHC 041440 TCMAT1 HURRICANE ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 1500 UTC FRI JUL 04 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS REPLACED ALL REMAINING TROPICAL STORM WATCHES WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. ALL HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND HAS ALSO BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY * NANTUCKET * CAPE COD FROM PROVINCETOWN TO WOODS HOLE * NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING CAPE BRETON ISLAND * PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND * NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U. S./CANADA BORDER TO GRAND-ANSE INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN COASTAL PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ARTHUR. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.7N 73.4W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 21 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 35SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 80SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT.......100NE 110SE 70SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 240SE 240SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.7N 73.4W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 74.4W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 40.2N 70.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 35SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 90SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 130SE 90SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 44.0N 66.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 70SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 150SE 130SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 46.1N 63.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 200SE 160SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 48.0N 59.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 240SE 240SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 55.0N 52.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 300SE 240SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 59.0N 46.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 62.0N 35.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.7N 73.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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