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Hurricane JOAQUIN Public Advisory Number 31
2015-10-05 10:52:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST MON OCT 05 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 050852 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 500 AM AST MON OCT 05 2015 ...JOAQUIN EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.1N 65.2W ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM N OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was located near latitude 34.1 North, longitude 65.2 West. Joaquin is moving toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h), and a turn toward the northeast and east-northeast is expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Joaquin will move away from Bermuda today. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). A sustained wind speed of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust to 55 mph (89 km/h) were recently reported at the Bermuda International Airport. The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to affect Bermuda this morning. STORM SURGE: Water levels should gradually subside today. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and potentially damaging waves. RAINFALL: Rain will diminish across Bermuda this morning as Joaquin moves away from the area. SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will continue to affect portions of the Bahamas during the next day or so. Swells are affecting much of the east coast of the United States and will spread northward along the coast of Atlantic Canada during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Even though Joaquin is passing well east of the coast of the United States, a prolonged period of elevated water levels and large waves will affect the mid-Atlantic region, causing significant beach and dune erosion with moderate coastal flooding likely. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane JOAQUIN Forecast Advisory Number 31
2015-10-05 10:52:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 05 2015 000 WTNT21 KNHC 050852 TCMAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 0900 UTC MON OCT 05 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 65.2W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 50SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT.......180NE 160SE 140SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 480SE 360SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 65.2W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 65.4W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 35.4N 64.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 140SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 37.1N 61.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 70NE 90SE 80SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 160SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 38.6N 56.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 60SE 60SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 90SE 90SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 200SE 180SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 39.9N 50.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 120SE 120SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 240SE 240SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 42.0N 36.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 120SE 120SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 240SE 240SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 43.5N 23.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 45.0N 17.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.1N 65.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane JOAQUIN Graphics
2015-10-05 07:48:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 05 Oct 2015 05:48:37 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 05 Oct 2015 03:05:48 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane JOAQUIN (AT1/AL112015)
2015-10-05 07:47:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER BERMUDA... As of 2:00 AM AST Mon Oct 5 the center of JOAQUIN was located near 33.6, -65.5 with movement NNE at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 961 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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Hurricane JOAQUIN Public Advisory Number 30A
2015-10-05 07:47:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST MON OCT 05 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 050547 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOAQUIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 30A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 200 AM AST MON OCT 05 2015 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.6N 65.5W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM NNW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Bermuda Weather Service has replaced the Hurricane Warning with a Tropical Storm Warning for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was located near latitude 33.6 North, longitude 65.5 West. Joaquin is moving toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h), and a turn toward the northeast and east-northeast is expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Joaquin will move away from Bermuda today. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force-winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). A sustained wind speed of 44 mph (70 km/h) and a gust to 61 mph (98 km/h) were reported at the Bermuda International Airport within the past hour. The estimated minimum central pressure is 961 mb (28.38 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to affect Bermuda overnight, with possible gusts to near hurricane force. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding in Bermuda through early morning. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Joaquin is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches across Bermuda. SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will continue to affect portions of the Bahamas during the next day or so. Swells are affecting much of the east coast of the United States and will spread northward along the coast of Atlantic Canada during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Even though Joaquin is passing well east of the coast of the United States, a prolonged period of elevated water levels and large waves will affect the mid-Atlantic region, causing significant beach and dune erosion with moderate coastal flooding likely. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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