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Hurricane JOAQUIN Forecast Discussion Number 26
2015-10-04 04:52:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST SAT OCT 03 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 040252 TCDAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1100 PM AST SAT OCT 03 2015 While the cloud pattern has deteriorated a little this evening, reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Joaquin is still a Category 4 hurricane. The aircraft reported 700-mb flight-level winds of 131 kt southeast of the center along with a central pressure near 944 mb. Surface wind estimates from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer were as high as 126 kt, but it is uncertain how reliable these are. Based mainly on the flight-level winds, the initial intensity is decreased to 115 kt. The aircraft also reports that the size of the 50 kt and 64 kt wind radii have expanded in the southeastern quadrant. Joaquin has moved a little to the right for the past several hours and the initial motion is now 050/17. Water vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level low near 34N 71W and a mid- to upper-level ridge east of 60W between 25N and 40N. Joaquin is expected to turn north-northeastward between these features during the next 12 hours, with this motion continuing through about 48 hours. After that time, the tropical cyclone is expected to recurve northeastward into the westerlies and accelerate. The forecast track, which has been shifted about 30 n mi eastward from the previous track, lies near the center of the tightly clustered track guidance models. The intensity guidance is in good agreement that Joaquin should weaken during the forecast period as it encounters episodes of moderate to strong vertical wind shear. However, it is likely to be a Category 2 hurricane in 24-36 hours at the time of closest approach to Bermuda. Extratropical transition should begin around 72 hours and be complete by 96 hours, with the winds decreasing below hurricane force during the transition. The new intensity forecast is an update of the previous forecast and lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. The combination of the shift in the forecast track and the expansion of the hurricane-force winds requires a hurricane warning for Bermuda at this time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 28.0N 68.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 29.9N 67.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 32.3N 66.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 34.3N 65.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 36.4N 62.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 41.0N 52.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 45.5N 36.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 09/0000Z 50.5N 22.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane JOAQUIN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26
2015-10-04 04:52:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 04 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 040252 PWSAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 0300 UTC SUN OCT 04 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BERMUDA 34 4 83(87) 7(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) BERMUDA 50 X 39(39) 17(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) BERMUDA 64 X 13(13) 11(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Hurricane JOAQUIN (AT1/AL112015)
2015-10-04 04:52:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE JOAQUIN CONTINUING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD BERMUDA... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Oct 3 the center of JOAQUIN was located near 28.0, -68.9 with movement NE at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 944 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.
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Hurricane JOAQUIN Public Advisory Number 26
2015-10-04 04:52:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST SAT OCT 03 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 040252 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1100 PM AST SAT OCT 03 2015 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE JOAQUIN CONTINUING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.0N 68.9W ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Hurricane Warning for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was located near latitude 28.0 North, longitude 68.9 West. Joaquin is moving toward the northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast is expected later tonight, with this motion continuing through Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Joaquin will pass near Bermuda late Sunday or Sunday night. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Joaquin is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 944 mb (27.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are first expected to reach Bermuda by Sunday morning, with hurricane conditions expected by Sunday afternoon. RAINFALL: Outer rain bands of Joaquin will begin to affect Bermuda by early Sunday, and Joaquin is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rainfall over Bermuda through Monday. SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will continue to affect portions of the Bahamas during the next few days. Swells are affecting much of the southeastern coast of the United States and will spread northward along the east coast of the United States through the weekend. Swells from Joaquin will begin affecting Bermuda tonight and continue through Sunday and Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Even though Joaquin is expected to pass well east of the coast of the United States, a prolonged period of elevated water levels and large waves will affect the mid-Atlantic region, causing significant beach and dune erosion with moderate coastal flooding likely. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane JOAQUIN Forecast Advisory Number 26
2015-10-04 04:51:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 04 2015 000 WTNT21 KNHC 040251 TCMAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 0300 UTC SUN OCT 04 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR BERMUDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 68.9W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 944 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 100SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT.......140NE 180SE 100SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 240SE 240SW 540NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 68.9W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 69.5W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 29.9N 67.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 100SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 180SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 32.3N 66.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 100SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 180SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 34.3N 65.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 90SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 200SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 36.4N 62.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 90SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 41.0N 52.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 200SE 180SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 45.5N 36.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 50.5N 22.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.0N 68.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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