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Hurricane JOAQUIN Graphics
2015-10-04 22:55:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 04 Oct 2015 20:48:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 04 Oct 2015 20:54:47 GMT
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Hurricane JOAQUIN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 29
2015-10-04 22:53:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 04 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 042053 PWSAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 2100 UTC SUN OCT 04 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) BERMUDA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BERMUDA 50 12 X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane JOAQUIN Graphics
2015-10-04 19:45:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 04 Oct 2015 17:45:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 04 Oct 2015 15:07:48 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane JOAQUIN (AT1/AL112015)
2015-10-04 19:43:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EYE OF JOAQUIN PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA... ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS LASHING THE ISLAND... As of 2:00 PM AST Sun Oct 4 the center of JOAQUIN was located near 31.6, -66.6 with movement NNE at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 957 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
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Hurricane JOAQUIN Public Advisory Number 28A
2015-10-04 19:43:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST SUN OCT 04 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 041743 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOAQUIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 200 PM AST SUN OCT 04 2015 ...EYE OF JOAQUIN PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA... ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS LASHING THE ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.6N 66.6W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was located by satellite and he Bermuda radar near latitude 31.6 North, longitude 66.6 West. Joaquin is moving toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion with a slight decrease in forward is expected to continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Joaquin will pass just west of Bermuda later this afternoon, and pass north of Bermuda tonight. Recent data from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). During the past couple of hours, a wind gust to 55 mph (89 km/h) was reported at the Bermuda International Airport. The estimated minimum central pressure based on recent aircraft data is 957 mb (28.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are first expected to reach Bermuda later this morning, with hurricane conditions expected by later this afternoon and early evening. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible on Bermuda this afternoon and early evening. STORM SURGE: A dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in Bermuda. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Joaquin is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches across Bermuda through tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will continue to affect portions of the Bahamas during the next few days. Swells are affecting much of the southeastern and mid-Atlantic coasts of the United States and will spread northward along the east coast of the United States through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Even though Joaquin is expected to pass well east of the coast of the United States, a prolonged period of elevated water levels and large waves will affect the mid-Atlantic region, causing significant beach and dune erosion with moderate coastal flooding likely. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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