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Hurricane JOAQUIN Graphics

2015-10-03 16:51:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 03 Oct 2015 14:45:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 03 Oct 2015 14:50:47 GMT

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Hurricane JOAQUIN Forecast Discussion Number 23

2015-10-03 16:42:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 03 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 031442 TCDAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 03 2015 The satellite presentation has improved during the past 12 hours. A distinct eye is clearly observed in conventional imagery, and it is surrounded by very deep convection. A blend of subjective and objective Dvorak estimates of 6.0 and 6.5 T-numbers, and a peak flight-level wind of 128 kt at 700 mb reported by a reconnaissance aircraft yields an initial intensity of 115 kt. The central pressure has dropped to 936 mb in the last reconnaissance fix. Despite the small increase in the initial intensity, the NHC forecast, which is very close to the intensity model consensus, calls for gradual weakening due to increasing shear and cooler waters. By the end of the forecast period, Joaquin is expected to have lost tropical characteristics. Reconnaissance and satellite fixes indicate that Joaquin is moving toward the northeast or 050 degrees at an average speed of 12 kt. The hurricane is currently embedded within the flow between a deep eastward-moving trough over the southeastern United States and a subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic. As the trough over the United States swings eastward, the hurricane will likely turn more to the north-northeast with some increase in forward speed during the next 12 to 24 hours. Then, as the trough weakens, the hurricane could slow down while moving west of Bermuda during late Sunday. After that time, Joaquin is expected to become fully embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies and accelerate eastward toward the northeast Atlantic. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one, on top of the multi-model consensus, and in the middle of the guidance envelope. Although the confidence in the track forecast has increased due to the good agreement among models, a small deviation to the east of the forecast track would bring the core of the hurricane with stronger winds closer to Bermuda. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 25.8N 72.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 27.9N 70.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 30.7N 68.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 33.0N 66.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 35.0N 65.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 39.0N 59.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 43.5N 45.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 08/1200Z 48.5N 26.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Avila

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Hurricane JOAQUIN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23

2015-10-03 16:41:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 03 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 031441 PWSAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1500 UTC SAT OCT 03 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) BERMUDA 34 X 24(24) 42(66) 6(72) 2(74) X(74) X(74) BERMUDA 50 X 1( 1) 17(18) 5(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Hurricane JOAQUIN Forecast Advisory Number 23

2015-10-03 16:41:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 03 2015 000 WTNT21 KNHC 031441 TCMAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1500 UTC SAT OCT 03 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FOR BERMUDA...THE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 72.0W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 936 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 45SW 45NW. 50 KT.......100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......160NE 180SE 130SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 210SE 210SW 570NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 72.0W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 72.6W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 27.9N 70.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 45SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 150SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 30.7N 68.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 200SE 160SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 33.0N 66.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 200SE 160SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 35.0N 65.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 39.0N 59.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 65NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 180SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 43.5N 45.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 48.5N 26.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.8N 72.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Summary for Hurricane JOAQUIN (AT1/AL112015)

2015-10-03 16:41:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...SEVERE HURRICANE JOAQUIN WITH 130 MPH WINDS MOVES AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS... ...IT THREATENS BERMUDA... As of 11:00 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 the center of JOAQUIN was located near 25.8, -72.0 with movement NE at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 936 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.

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