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Tropical Storm JOAQUIN Graphics
2015-09-29 10:51:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 29 Sep 2015 08:33:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 29 Sep 2015 08:50:46 GMT
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Tropical Storm JOAQUIN Forecast Discussion Number 6
2015-09-29 10:37:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 290837 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 The low-level center of Joaquin remains exposed on the northwestern edge of the deep convection due to about 20 kt of shear. A pair of ASCAT passes around 01-02Z showed peak winds of around 35 kt, and that remains the intensity for this advisory, in agreement with the latest TAFB and SAB Dvorak estimates. The ASCAT data were also used to adjust the initial 34-kt wind radii. After moving quickly southwestward earlier, the center of Joaquin appears to be moving more slowly westward at about 4 kt. The track forecast remains highly uncertain, and if anything, the spread in the track model guidance is larger now beyond 48 hours due to uncertainty in the evolution of the synoptic-scale flow and the structure of Joaquin. In particular, the global models are having trouble with the evolution of a deep layer trough over the southeastern U.S. late in the forecast period, with added uncertainty about the structure of Joaquin and how it might interact with the trough. The latest runs of the UKMET and ECMWF bring Joaquin farther southwest early in the period and then show a northward and northeastward motion, respectively, ahead of the trough at days 4 and 5. The GFS shows a weaker Joaquin being absorbed into a frontal zone off the U.S. east coast in 3 to 4 days, while the HWRF and GFDL continue to show a faster northward and then northwestward track. In the first 48 hours, the new NHC track is a little to the south of the previous one accounting for the initial position and motion and a trend toward the multi-model consensus. At days 3 through 5, the official forecast is a little to the right of and slower than the previous one given the large spread in the track guidance. Needless to say, confidence in the details of the track forecast, especially beyond 48 hours, is extremely low. The SHIPS model output shows moderate to strong northerly shear continuing over the cyclone for the next 24 to 36 hours, which should only allow for slow strengthening. After that time, the shear decreases a bit and the cyclone could strengthen a little more while over warm waters. However, there is a lot of spread in the intensity guidance as well. As noted above, the latest run of the GFS dissipates Joaquin in 3 to 4 days. On the other hand, the ECMWF and UKMET show the cyclone deepening considerably in the short term, while the HWRF and GFDL show more strengthening later in the period. Given the uncertainty in Joaquin's structure and track, the new NHC forecast remains conservative, and is closest to the SHIPS model and below the intensity consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 26.6N 70.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 26.6N 71.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 26.7N 72.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 26.8N 72.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 27.1N 73.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 02/0600Z 28.5N 73.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 03/0600Z 32.0N 73.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 04/0600Z 36.5N 73.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Summary for Tropical Storm JOAQUIN (AT1/AL112015)
2015-09-29 10:33:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOAQUIN MOVING WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 5:00 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 the center of JOAQUIN was located near 26.6, -70.6 with movement W at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm JOAQUIN Public Advisory Number 6
2015-09-29 10:33:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 290833 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 ...JOAQUIN MOVING WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.6N 70.6W ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM NE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Joaquin was located near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 70.6 West. Joaquin is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. A decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the west-northwest are forecast by Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm JOAQUIN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2015-09-29 10:32:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 29 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 290832 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 0900 UTC TUE SEP 29 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 12(21) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 8(18) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) SAN SALVADOR 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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