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Hurricane JOAQUIN Public Advisory Number 13

2015-10-01 04:49:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 010249 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1100 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 ...JOAQUIN BECOMES A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.8N 73.1W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM E OF SAN SALVADOR ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM E OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 220 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch for Andros Island. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Central Bahamas including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador * Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Bimini * Andros Island A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands, but excluding the Turks and Caicos Islands. * Andros Island A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should have already been completed in the Central Bahamas. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 73.1 West. Joaquin is moving toward the southwest near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue over the next 24 hours. A turn toward the northwest and north is forecast Thursday night or Friday. The center of Joaquin is expected to move near or over portions of the central Bahamas overnight and Thursday, and be near or over portions of the Northwestern Bahamas Thursday night or Friday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Joaquin is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible Thursday night and Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance data is 951 mb (28.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach portions of the Central Bahamas by early Thursday morning. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength in the warning area tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the southeastern Bahamas beginning tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected over portions of the Northwestern Bahamas Thursday night or Friday. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 5 to 8 feet above normal tide levels in the Central Bahamas in areas of onshore flow. A storm surge of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels is expected in the Northwest Bahamas within the Hurricane Warning area, and 1 to 2 feet is expected in the Southeast Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. RAINFALL: Joaquin is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches over the central Bahamas and 5 to 10 inches over the northwestern Bahamas and southeastern Bahamas. Isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are possible in the central Bahamas. This rainfall could result in life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will affect portions of the Bahamas during the next few days, and will begin to affect portions of the southeastern coast of the United States by Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown/Stewart

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Hurricane JOAQUIN Forecast Advisory Number 13

2015-10-01 04:49:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 01 2015 000 WTNT21 KNHC 010249 TCMAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 0300 UTC THU OCT 01 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR ANDROS ISLAND. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CENTRAL BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND, RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ABACOS...BERRY ISLANDS, ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BIMINI * ANDROS ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND, LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...BUT EXCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. * ANDROS ISLAND A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 73.1W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 220 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 951 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 120SE 80SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 160SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 73.1W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 73.0W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 23.5N 73.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 23.6N 74.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 24.7N 74.8W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 26.6N 74.7W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 31.6N 74.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...210NE 180SE 100SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 36.2N 75.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 38.5N 76.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.8N 73.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Hurricane JOAQUIN Graphics

2015-10-01 01:59:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 30 Sep 2015 23:59:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 30 Sep 2015 21:04:50 GMT

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Summary for Hurricane JOAQUIN (AT1/AL112015)

2015-10-01 01:57:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS JOAQUIN STRONGER... As of 8:00 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 the center of JOAQUIN was located near 24.0, -73.0 with movement SW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 954 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

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Hurricane JOAQUIN Public Advisory Number 12A

2015-10-01 01:57:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 302357 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOAQUIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 800 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS JOAQUIN STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.0N 73.0W ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM E OF SAN SALVADOR BAHAMAS ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM NE OF SAMANA CAYS BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 225 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Central Bahamas including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador * Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence, but excluding Andros Island and Bimini A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Bimini A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands, but excluding the Turks and Caicos Islands. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Joaquin was located near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 73.0 West. Joaquin has been drifting southward during the past few hours, but a general motion toward the southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) is expected through Thursday. A turn toward the northwest and north is forecast Thursday night or Friday. The center of Joaquin is expected to move near or over portions of the central Bahamas tonight and Thursday, and be near or over portions of the Northwestern Bahamas Thursday night or Friday. Recent reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Joaquin is expected to become a major hurricane during the next 24 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance aircraft is 954 mb (28.17 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach portions of the Central Bahamas by early Thursday morning. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength in the warning area tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the southeastern Bahamas beginning tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected over portions of the Northwestern Bahamas Thursday night or Friday. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore flow. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. RAINFALL: Joaquin is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches over the central Bahamas and 5 to 10 inches over the northwestern Bahamas and southeastern Bahamas. Isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are possible in the central Bahamas. This rainfall could result in life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will affect portions of the Bahamas during the next few days, and will begin to affect portions of the southeastern coast of the United States by Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown/Stewart

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