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Summary for Hurricane JOAQUIN (AT1/AL112015)

2015-09-30 16:53:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...JOAQUIN STRENGTHENS SOME MORE AS IT MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... As of 11:00 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 the center of JOAQUIN was located near 24.7, -72.6 with movement SW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 971 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

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Hurricane JOAQUIN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11

2015-09-30 16:53:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 30 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 301453 PWSAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1500 UTC WED SEP 30 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) HARTFORD CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) HARTFORD CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) NEW YORK CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) NEW YORK CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) NEWARK NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) NEWARK NJ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) TRENTON NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) TRENTON NJ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 19(27) ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) ATLANTIC CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) BALTIMORE MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 17(24) DOVER DE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) DOVER DE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) ANNAPOLIS MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) WASHINGTON DC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 19(31) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 11(20) RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 14(29) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 16(31) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 18(31) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 12(39) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 7(18) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 8(31) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 5(21) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 3(15) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 9(17) 1(18) X(18) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 1 2( 3) 11(14) 14(28) 7(35) 1(36) X(36) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ANDROS 34 1 3( 4) 9(13) 10(23) 4(27) X(27) X(27) ANDROS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GREAT EXUMA 34 2 28(30) 26(56) 12(68) 3(71) X(71) X(71) GREAT EXUMA 50 X 8( 8) 13(21) 10(31) 2(33) X(33) X(33) GREAT EXUMA 64 X 3( 3) 7(10) 4(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) SAN SALVADOR 34 41 44(85) 9(94) 3(97) 1(98) X(98) X(98) SAN SALVADOR 50 6 45(51) 17(68) 7(75) 5(80) X(80) X(80) SAN SALVADOR 64 2 26(28) 19(47) 5(52) 3(55) X(55) X(55) MAYAGUANA 34 8 24(32) 12(44) 6(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) MAYAGUANA 50 X 4( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) MAYAGUANA 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND TURK 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) CAMAGUEY 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Hurricane JOAQUIN Public Advisory Number 11

2015-09-30 16:53:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 301453 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1100 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 ...JOAQUIN STRENGTHENS SOME MORE AS IT MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.7N 72.6W ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM ENE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Central Bahamas including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence, but excluding Andros Island A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was located near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 72.6 West. Joaquin is moving toward the southwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A general motion toward the west-southwest or southwest is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the northwest and a decrease in forward speed are forecast Thursday or Thursday night. The center of Joaquin is expected to move near or over portions of the central Bahamas tonight and Thursday. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and Joaquin could become a major hurricane during the next couple of days. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 971 mb (28.67 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach portions of the Central Bahamas by Thursday morning. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength in the warning area tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the southeastern Bahamas beginning tonight. Hurricane conditions could reach the northwestern Bahamas early on Friday. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore flow. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. RAINFALL: Joaquin is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain over much of the central Bahamas, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible over San Salvador and Rum Cay through Friday night. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are possible over the southeastern Bahamas through Friday night, with 2 to 4 inches expected over the northwestern Bahamas. SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will affect portions of the Bahamas during the next few days, and will begin to affect portions of the southeastern coast of the United States by Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Hurricane JOAQUIN Forecast Advisory Number 11

2015-09-30 16:53:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 30 2015 000 WTNT21 KNHC 301453 TCMAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1500 UTC WED SEP 30 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CENTRAL BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND, RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ABACOS...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI, ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE...BUT EXCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 72.6W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 230 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB EYE DIAMETER 50 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT.......100NE 110SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..160NE 100SE 90SW 130NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 72.6W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 72.3W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 24.3N 73.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 24.1N 74.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 24.4N 74.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 25.3N 74.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 28.5N 73.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 34.0N 73.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 38.5N 74.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.7N 72.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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