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Tropical Storm JOAQUIN Graphics
2015-09-30 04:55:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 30 Sep 2015 02:55:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 30 Sep 2015 02:54:45 GMT
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Tropical Storm JOAQUIN Forecast Discussion Number 9
2015-09-30 04:54:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 300254 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 The cloud pattern of Joaquin has continued to become better organized this evening. The low-level center is located within the northwestern portion of the deep convection and the outflow has continued to expand over the northern semicircle, which suggests that the shear continues to decrease. The latest satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are T3.5 or 55 kt on the Dvorak scale. Based on the earlier reconnaissance aircraft data and the continued increase in organization this evening, the initial wind speed has been raised to 60 kt. Joaquin is forecast to be over warm water and in an increasingly favorable upper-level wind pattern during the next day or so. These conditions favor intensification and the NHC forecast calls for Joaquin to become a hurricane within the next 12 hours. The upper-level winds are shown by the global models to become quite conducive for strengthening by 36 hours as an upper-level anticyclone builds over the system, and additional strengthening is anticipated. The new NHC forecast is a bit higher than the previous advisory, and is close to the IVCN intensity consensus aid. It should be noted, that the UKMET, GFS, and ECMWF models all significantly deepen Joaquin during the next few days, and the NHC forecast could be somewhat conservative. Joaquin is moving west-southwestward at about 5 kt. This general motion is forecast to continue during the next 24-36 hours while the cyclone remains to the southwest of a weak mid-level ridge. During this time, the center of Joaquin is forecast to move near or over portions of the Central Bahamas. After 48 hours, a deepening mid- to upper-level trough over the southeastern United States is expected to cause a turn toward the north or north-northeast with an increase in forward speed. There remains large spread in the guidance at days 4 and 5, with the ECMWF showing a northeastward motion toward Bermuda. Meanwhile, the 18Z GFS shifted significantly westward and is close to the UKMET and HWRF, which are along the western edge of the guidance envelope. The NHC track has been shifted westward, but it is not as far west as the multi-model consensus. The new track is fairly close to the ECMWF-Ensemble Mean. The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Watch for the Central Bahamas. Additional watches or warnings may be required early Wednesday. At this time it is very hard to gauge the long-range potential impacts of Joaquin in the United States. The environmental steering currents are complex and are not being handled in a consistent manner by the forecast models. A wide range of outcomes are possible and it is simply too soon to say what impacts, if any, Joaquin will have on the United States. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 25.8N 71.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 25.5N 72.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 25.2N 73.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 24.8N 74.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 24.9N 74.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 26.7N 74.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 04/0000Z 31.3N 72.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 05/0000Z 35.5N 72.0W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm JOAQUIN (AT1/AL112015)
2015-09-30 04:54:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOAQUIN EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... As of 11:00 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 the center of JOAQUIN was located near 25.8, -71.7 with movement WSW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm JOAQUIN Graphics
2015-09-29 22:54:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 29 Sep 2015 20:54:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 29 Sep 2015 15:04:50 GMT
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Tropical Storm JOAQUIN Forecast Discussion Number 8
2015-09-29 22:53:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 292052 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 500 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 The cloud pattern of the storm has become better organized during the day, with the low level center now embedded inside the northern edge of the main area of deep convection. Animation of cirrus motions suggest that upper-level outflow is becoming a little more prominent over the northern portion of the circulation, and this is consistent with decreasing northerly shear. Flight-level, dropsonde, and SFMR wind observations from an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate that Joaquin has strengthened and the intensity is now estimated to be 55 kt. With a more favorable upper-level wind environment now expected to prevail, the official forecast calls for more strengthening than the previous advisories. Joaquin is expected to become a hurricane within 24 hours, with additional intensification likely thereafter. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the latest SHIPS model output. Fixes from the aircraft show a southward component of motion and the initial motion estimate is now 240/4 kt. Joaquin is currently south of the southwestern periphery of a weak mid-level ridge. The ECMWF model shows this ridging to the north of the tropical cyclone to be more prominent over the next few days than the other dynamical models. Consequently, the ECMWF takes Joaquin more to the west and southwest through 72 hours than any of the other available guidance. Later in the forecast period, there is a significant divergence in the track guidance. The HWRF and U.K. Met Office models forecast Joaquin to move over the east coast of the United States later in the period whereas the ECMWF and GFS keep the system well offshore. The official forecast lies between these possibilities and is similar to the latest Florida State University Superensemble solution. Interests in the Bahamas should monitor the progress of this storm. Watches or warnings may be issued for portions of these islands later this evening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 26.0N 71.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 25.8N 71.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 25.5N 72.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 25.1N 73.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 24.8N 73.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 25.0N 74.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 29.0N 73.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 04/1800Z 34.0N 71.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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