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Summary for Hurricane JOAQUIN (AT1/AL112015)
2015-09-30 13:39:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOAQUIN BECOMES A HURRICANE... As of 8:00 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 the center of JOAQUIN was located near 24.9, -72.2 with movement SW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 971 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane JOAQUIN Public Advisory Number 10A
2015-09-30 13:39:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 301139 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOAQUIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 800 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 ...JOAQUIN BECOMES A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.9N 72.2W ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM ENE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 235 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Central Bahamas including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence, but excluding Andros Island A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical storm force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 to 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was located near latitude 24.9 North, longitude 72.2 West. Joaquin is moving toward the southwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A general motion toward the west-southwest or southwest is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the west and a decrease in forward speed are forecast on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Joaquin is expected to move near or over portions of the central Bahamas tonight and Thursday. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (50 km) from the center. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 971 mb (28.67 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach portions of the Central Bahamas by midday Thursday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength in the warning area tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore flow. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. RAINFALL: Joaquin is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible over San Salvador and Rum Cay through Friday morning. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are possible over the remainder of the central Bahamas through Friday morning, with 2 to 4 inches expected over the northwestern and southeastern Bahamas. SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will affect portions of the Bahamas during the next few days, and will begin to affect portions of the east coast of Florida and the southeast coast of the United States by Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane JOAQUIN Forecast Advisory Number 10
2015-09-30 12:34:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 30 2015 000 WTNT21 KNHC 301034 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 0900 UTC WED SEP 30 2015 CORRECTED TO SHOW HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND. CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND. THIS INCLUDES THE ABACOS...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND... AND NEW PROVIDENCE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CENTRAL BAHAMAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 72.5W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 110SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 72.5W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 72.0W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 25.1N 73.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 24.7N 73.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 24.7N 74.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 25.2N 74.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 28.3N 73.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 33.0N 73.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 37.0N 73.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.4N 72.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Storm JOAQUIN Graphics
2015-09-30 11:09:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 30 Sep 2015 08:41:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 30 Sep 2015 09:04:46 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm JOAQUIN (AT1/AL112015)
2015-09-30 10:43:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... ...HURRICANE HUNTERS ON THEIR WAY TO INVESTIGATE JOAQUIN... As of 5:00 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 the center of JOAQUIN was located near 25.4, -72.5 with movement WSW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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