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Tropical Storm Joyce Forecast Discussion Number 12
2018-09-15 16:32:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 15 2018 377 WTNT45 KNHC 151432 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 15 2018 Joyce is feeling the effects of shear this morning. The low-level center of the tropical storm has become exposed to the south of a area of deep convection. ASCAT data indicate the the maximum winds have dropped to 35-40 kt, and 40 kt is chosen as the initial wind speed since the resolution of ASCAT is likely causing an undersampling of the small storm. The environment isn't forecast to change much near Joyce during the next day or so, with strong shear being offset by waters near 27C. The NHC forecast is leveled off during that time, a bit lower than the previous prediction mostly to account for the initial wind speed. Thereafter, while the shear is forecast to continue, the mid-level air should become drier near the center, and SSTs cool off gradually below 26C. These conditions should cause Joyce to slowly weaken early next week, and dissipate in 3 days or so. This is the solution provided by much of the guidance, and the NHC forecast follows suit. Joyce has accelerated overnight, now moving east-northeastward at about 12 kt. The storm remains embedded in the same trough as Tropical Storm Helene and it should follow that tropical cyclone east-northeastward to northeastward at increasing forward speeds during the next day or two. Beyond that time, as Joyce becomes a shallow cyclone, it is forecast to turn southeastward due to low-level flow around the eastern side of a building ridge over the central Atlantic Ocean. No significant changes were made to the forecast, which lies on the southern side of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 32.0N 41.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 32.9N 39.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 34.0N 35.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 34.5N 32.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 34.0N 29.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 32.0N 25.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Summary for Tropical Storm Joyce (AT5/AL102018)
2018-09-15 16:31:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOYCE WEAKER AS IT TURNS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Sep 15 the center of Joyce was located near 32.0, -41.0 with movement ENE at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Joyce Public Advisory Number 12
2018-09-15 16:31:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 15 2018 388 WTNT35 KNHC 151431 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Joyce Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 15 2018 ...JOYCE WEAKER AS IT TURNS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.0N 41.0W ABOUT 890 MI...1435 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Joyce was located near latitude 32.0 North, longitude 41.0 West. Joyce is moving toward the east-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A faster east-northeast to northeast motion is expected during the next day or two. The storm should turn back to the east on Monday and to the southeast on Tuesday, away from the Azores. Satellite data indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast during the next 72 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Joyce Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2018-09-15 16:31:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 15 2018 289 FONT15 KNHC 151431 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM JOYCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018 1500 UTC SAT SEP 15 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOYCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm Joyce Forecast Advisory Number 12
2018-09-15 16:31:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 15 2018 124 WTNT25 KNHC 151431 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018 1500 UTC SAT SEP 15 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 41.0W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 41.0W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 41.7W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 32.9N 39.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 34.0N 35.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 34.5N 32.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 34.0N 29.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 32.0N 25.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.0N 41.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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